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Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method: A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference

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  • Steffen Henzel

    ()

  • Timo Wollmershäuser

    ()

Abstract

This paper presents a new methodology for the quantification of qualitative survey data. Traditional conversion methods, such as the probability approach of Carlson and Parkin (1975) or the time-varying parameters model of Seitz (1988), require very restrictive assumptions concerning the expectations formation process of survey respondents. Above all, the unbiasedness of expectations, which is a necessary condition for rationality, is imposed. Our approach avoids this assumptions. The novelty lies in the way the boundaries inside of which survey respondents expect the variable under consideration to remain unchanged are determined. Instead of deriving these boundaries from the statistical properties of the reference time-series (which necessitates the unbiasedness assumption), we directly queried them from survey respondents by a special question in the Ifo World Economic Survey. The new methodology is then applied to expectations about the future development of inflation obtained from the Ifo World Economic Survey.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art8-en
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by OECD Publishing,CIRET in its journal Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.

Volume (Year): 2005 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 321-352

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Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkaa:5l9k5d21hff5

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation expectations; Survey data; Quantification methods;

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Cited by:
  1. Ziegler, Christina, 2012. "Monetary policy under alternative exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 104, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  2. Thomas Maag, 2009. "On the Accuracy of the Probability Method for Quantifying Beliefs about Inflation," KOF Working papers 09-230, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. Henzel, Steffen & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve and the role of expectations: Evidence from the CESifo World Economic Survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 811-832, September.
  4. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Quantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited," Discussion Papers 13-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  5. Christian Seiler, 2013. "Nonresponse in Business Tendency Surveys: Theoretical Discourse and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52.
  6. Henry Sabrowski, 2008. "Inflation Expectation Formation of German Consumers: Rational or Adaptive?," Working Paper Series in Economics 100, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
  7. Christian Seiler, 2012. "On the Robustness of the Balance Statistics with respect to Nonresponse," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 126, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  8. Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Role of Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 1694, CESifo Group Munich.

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