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The New Keynesian Phillips curve and the role of expectations: Evidence from the CESifo World Economic Survey

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  • Henzel, Steffen
  • Wollmershäuser, Timo

Abstract

We provide evidence on the fit of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve for selected Euro zone countries, the US and the UK. Instead of imposing rational expectations and estimating the Phillips curve by the Generalized Method of Moments, we use direct measures of inflation expectations from the CESifo World Economic Survey. Our main findings are as follows: (i) The use of survey data gives empirical results, which are more reliable than those obtained from the GMM approach. (ii) The purely forward-looking Phillips curve can be rejected in favor of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. (iii) The estimated coefficients on past inflation are higher when using survey expectations than when using the rational expectations GMM approach. (iv) It remains unclear whether real unit labor costs or a measure of the output gap should be used as a proxy for real marginal costs. (v) Theory-based restrictions lead to an improvement of the empirical results.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 25 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 811-832

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:25:y:2008:i:5:p:811-832

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
  2. Borek Vasicek, 2009. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp971, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2012. "The Forecasting Performance of Single Equation Models of Inflation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(280), pages 64-78, 03.
  4. Puah, Chin-Hong & Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun & Jais, Mohamad, 2011. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis on the Retail Trade Sector Using Survey Data from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 36699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun & Puah, Chin-Hong & Md Isa, Abu Hassan, 2012. "Theory of rational expectations hypothesis: banks and other financial institutions in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 36657, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Gomes, Orlando, 2012. "Thought experimentation and the Phillips curve," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 45-64.
  7. Franke, Reiner & Sacht, Stephen, 2010. "Some observations in the high-frequency versions of a standard New-Keynesian model," MPRA Paper 33358, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2011.
  8. Buchmann, Marco, 2009. "Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1119, European Central Bank.
  9. Martina Basarac & Blanka Škrabiæ & Petar Soriæ, 2011. "The Hybrid Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence from Transition Economies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 367-383, August.
  10. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Vilmi , Lauri, 2013. "How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA," Research Discussion Papers 6/2013, Bank of Finland.
  11. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-88, March.
  12. Jean-Baptiste, Frédo, 2012. "Forecasting with the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 811-813.

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