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Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach

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  • ADAM HALE SHAPIRO

Abstract

It has become customary to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) with generalized method of moments using a large instrument set that includes lags of variables that are ad hoc to the firm's price-decision problem. Researchers have also conventionally used real unit labor cost (RULC) as the proxy for real marginal cost even though it is difficult to support its significance. This paper introduces a new proxy for the real marginal cost term as well as a new instrument set, both of which are based on the micro foundations of the vertical chain of production. I find that the new proxy, based on input prices as opposed to wages, provides a more robust and significant fit to the model. Instruments that are based on the vertical chain of production appear to be both more valid and relevant toward the model. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (06)
Pages: 627-666

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:4:p:627-666

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Cited by:
  1. Hiona Balfoussia & Sophocles N. Brissimis & Manthos D. Delis, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," Working Papers 138, Bank of Greece.
  2. William Barnett & Evgeniya Aleksandrovna Duzhak, 2006. "Non-Robust Dynamic Inferences from Macroeconometric Models: Bifurcation Stratification of Confidence Regions," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200608, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  3. William Barnett & Evgeniya Duzhak, 2010. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within New Keynesian models," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 99-128, October.
  4. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, . "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 84656, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  5. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2010. "Testing for Weak Identification in Possibly Nonlinear Models," Working Papers 10-92, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  6. Backus, David & Chernov, Mikhail & Zin, Stanley E., 2013. "Identifying Taylor rules in macro-finance models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9611, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Abe Dunn & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2011. "Physician Market Power and Medical-Care Expenditures," BEA Working Papers 0078, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  8. Gwin, Carl R. & VanHoose, David D., 2008. "Alternative measures of marginal cost and inflation in estimations of new Keynesian inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 928-940, September.
  9. Wong, Chin-Yoong & Eng, Yoke-Kee, 2010. "Vertically globalized production structure in New Keynesian Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 198-216, August.

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