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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Role of Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey

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Author Info
Steffen Henzel ()
Timo Wollmershäuser ()
Abstract

We provide evidence on the fit of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve for selected euro zone countries, the US and the UK. Instead of imposing rational expectations and estimating the Phillips curve by the Generalized Method of Moments, we follow Roberts (1997) and Adam and Padula (2003) and use direct measures of inflation expectations. The data source is the Ifo World Economic Survey, which quarterly polls economic experts about their expected future development of inflation. Our main findings are as follows: (i) In comparison with the rational expectations approach, backward-looking behaviour turns out to more relevant for most countries in our sample. (ii) The use of survey data for inflation expectations yields a positive slope of the Phillips curve when the output gap is used as a measure for marginal cost.

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Paper provided by CESifo GmbH in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1694.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1694

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Related research
Keywords: inflation expectations survey data euro zone Phillips curve

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Smets, Frank, 2003. "Maintaining price stability: how long is the medium term?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1293-1309, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pierpaolo Benigno & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 178, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Paloviita , Maritta, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations: further results," Research Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fabio Rumler, 2005. "Estimates of the open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve for euro area countries," Working Paper Series 496, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Sbordone, Argia M., 2005. "Do expected future marginal costs drive inflation dynamics?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1183-1197, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Moore, George R. & Schuh, Scott D., 1995. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-157, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Ehrmann, 2004. "Euro area inflation differentials," Working Paper Series 388, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Mathias Hoffmann & Andreas Schabert, 2004. "Inflation Dynamics And The Cost Channel Of Monetary Transmission," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 80, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2003. "Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies," Economics Working Paper Archive 491, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Seitz, Helmut, 1988. "The Estimation of Inflation Forecasts from Business Survey Data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 427-38, April.
  15. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Magnus Forsells & Geoff Kenny, 2002. "The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the Euro area," Working Paper Series 163, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Campbell Leith & Jim Malley, 2003. "Estimated Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curves for the G7," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States," Working Paper Series 222, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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