Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing
AbstractThis paper analyses and extends alternative procedures for converting qualitative expectations responses to quantitative expectations. A number of conversion procedures is investigated, including the probability model, the time-varying parameter probability model, and the regression approach. The informational content of the survey expectations is compared with simple time series models. It is found that the expectations models are superior for many series, both in terms of producing lower forecast root mean square error (RMSE) values and in detecting turning points in the actual data. Survey expectations are also tested for rational expectations in aggregate using the orthogonality test. Copyright 1995 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Australian National University - Department of Economics in its series Papers with number 219.
Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 1990
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, RESEARCH SCHOOL of PACIFIC STUDIES, RESEARCH SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, G.P.O. 4, CANBERRA ACT 2601 AUSTRALIA..O. BOX 4 CANBERRA 2601 AUSTRALIA.
Web page: http://economics.anu.edu.au/economics.htm
More information through EDIRC
manufacturing industries ; economic models;
Other versions of this item:
- Smith, Jeremy & McAleer, Michael, 1995. "Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 165-85, April-Jun.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Victor Bystrov & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, 2010. "On the power of direct tests for rational expectations against the alternative of constant gain learning," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 41(6), pages 71-84.
- James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2002.
"Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C117-C135, March.
- James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2001. "Quantification of qualitative firm-level survey data," NIESR Discussion Papers 181, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Christian Müller & Aniela Wirz & Nora Sydow, 2007. "A Note on the Carlson-Parkin Method of Quantifying Qualitative Data Evidence Based on a New Data Set," KOF Working papers 07-168, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, revised May 2007.
- Tomasz Lyziak, 2010.
"Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness,"
IFC Bulletins chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 155-201
Bank for International Settlements.
- Lyziak, Tomasz, 2009. "Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness," MPRA Paper 18890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Richard Dennis, 2012. "Sources of Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts: An International Empirical Investigation," CAMA Working Papers 2012-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Nolte, Ingmar & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2007. "Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 15-28.
- Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
- Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "Business survey forecasts and measurement of output trends in five European economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 52, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- McAleer, Michael, 1995. "The significance of testing empirical non-nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 149-171, May.
- Thomas Maag, 2009. "On the Accuracy of the Probability Method for Quantifying Beliefs about Inflation," KOF Working papers 09-230, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Enrico D’Elia, 2005. "Using the results of qualitative surveys in quantitative analysis," ISAE Working Papers 56, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
- Pierre L Siklos, 2010. "Relative Price Shocks, Inflation Expectations, and the Role of Monetary Policy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Troy Matheson & James Mitchell & Brian Silverstone, 2007. "Nowcasting and predicting data revisions in real time using qualitative panel survey data," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Frijters, Paul & Haisken-DeNew, John P. & Shields, Michael A., 2002. "Individual Rationality and Learning: Welfare Expectations in East Germany Post-Reunification," IZA Discussion Papers 498, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ciaran Driver & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2005. "Contrasts Between Classes of Assets in Fixed Investment Equations as a Way of Testing Real Option Theory," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0805, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Ullrich, Katrin, 2007.
"Inflation Expectations of Experts and ECB Communication,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
07-054, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Ullrich, Katrin, 2008. "Inflation expectations of experts and ECB communication," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 93-108, March.
- Francisco Craveiro Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2008.
"Inflation expectations in the euro area: Are consumers rational?,"
w200823, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Francisco Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2010. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: are consumers rational?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 591-607, September.
- repec:amu:wpaper:2013-04 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ciaran Driver & Katsushi Imai & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2002. "The Effect of Uncertainty on UK Investment Authorisation: Pooled Estimators vs. Heterogeneous Estimators1," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B3-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Quantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited," Discussion Papers 13-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, . "Information, Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends in Six European Economies," Discussion Papers in European Economics 99/7, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.