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Interest Rate Setting by the ECB: Words and Deeds

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Gerlach, Stefan

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Abstract

This Paper discusses interest rate setting by the ECB between 1999 and 2004. I develop from the Monthly Bulletins quantitative indicators of the Governing Council’s assessment of inflation, economic activity, and M3 growth, and investigate their impact on its interest rate decisions. I also estimate reaction functions with ordered probit techniques, using the Monthly Bulletins to guide the choice of variables for the analysis. The results show that the ECB reacts strongly to economic sentiment indicators as measures of the state of the real economy. Furthermore, I find statistically significant reactions to inflation and M3 growth.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4775.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4775

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Related research
Keywords: ECB; empirical reaction functions; ordered probit;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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  1. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2008. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Discussion Papers 2008-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Is a Word to the Wise Indeed Enough? ECB Statements and the Predictibility of Interest Rate Decisions," DNB Working Papers 075, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. David Cobham, 2006. " Using Taylor Rules to Assess the Relative Activism of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Board," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0602, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "How should central banks communicate?," Working Paper Series 557, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2007. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers’ Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(II), pages 155-185, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB, 1999-2006: Words and Deeds," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 1-46, September. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ramon Maria-Dolores, 2005. "Monetary Policy Rules In Accession Countries to EU: Is the Taylor rule a pattern?," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(7), pages 1-16. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christian Bordes & Samuel Maveyraud, 2008. "The Friedman's and Mishkin's Hypotheses (Re)Considered," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308571_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marie Musard-Gies, 2005. "Do ECB's statements steer short-term and long-term interest rates in the euro zone?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  11. Helge Berger & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Monetary policy in the media," Working Paper Series 679, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Does ECB Communication Help in Predicting its Interest Rate Decisions?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  13. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "The timing of central bank communication," Working Paper Series 565, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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