News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks
In: The Future of Inflation Targeting
AbstractIn this paper we analyse the effect of news relating to the expected path of monetary policy on interest rate futures. Central banksâ transparency is in most respects much greater than it was a decade ago, and so central bank communication needs to be included as a potential source of news. We therefore consider four types of news: macroeconomic news, overseas news, monetary policy surprises and central bank communication. The effect of these types of news on daily changes in interest rate futures is estimated using an EGARCH model for a panel of six economies. We find that interest rate expectations respond to both macroeconomic and policy news, although the response to macroeconomic news is larger, especially once we include foreign news. Overall, the results suggest that the impact of the RBAâs communication policy is in line with other major central banks, and significantly influences (and informs) expectations of future monetary policy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
This chapter was published in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.) The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages , 2004.
This item is provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Annual Conference Volume with number acv2004-08.
Other versions of this item:
- Ellis Connolly & Marion Kohler, 2004. "News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- M. Ehrmann & M. Fratzscher, 2003.
"Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?,"
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 0200, European Central Bank.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001.
"Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
- Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 1998.
"International Linkages and Macroeconomic News Effects on Interest Rate Volatility - Australia and the US',"
11, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2000. "International linkages and macroeconomic news effects on interest rate volatility -- Australia and the US," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 85-113, March.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997.
"What moves the bond market?,"
9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Param Silvapulle & Robert Pereira & J.H.H. Lee, 1993.
"The Impact of Inflation Rate Announcements on the Interest Rate Volatility: Australian Evidence,"
1993.26, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
- Param Silvapulle & Robert Pereira & John Lee, 1997. "The impact of inflation rate announcements on interest rate volatility: Australian evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 559-566.
- Jonathan Coppel & Ellis Connolly, 2003. "What Do Financial Market Data Tell Us about Monetary Policy Transparency?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- D. Jansen & J. de Haan, 2003.
"Statements of ECB Officials and their Effect on the Level and Volatility of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate,"
WO Research Memoranda (discontinued)
726, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2003. "Statements of ECB Officials and their Effect on the Level and Volatility of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 927, CESifo Group Munich.
- Chadha, Jagjit S. & Nolan, Charles, 2001.
"Inflation Targeting, Transparency and Interest Rate Volatility: Ditching Monetary Mystique in the U.K,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-366, July.
- Nolan, C. & Chadha, J.S., 1999. "Inflation Targeting, Transparency and Interest Rate Volatility: Ditching 'Monetary Mystique' in the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9921, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
- Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "Assessing the Impact of Changes in Transparency and Accountability at the Bank of Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 29(3), pages 279-299, September.
- Siklos, Pierre & Bohl , Martin, 2006.
"Policy words and policy deeds: the ECB and the euro,"
Research Discussion Papers
2/2006, Bank of Finland.
- Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2008. "Policy words and policy deeds: the ECB and the euro," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 247-265.
- P. Siklos, M. Bohl, 2006. "Policy Words and Policy Deeds: The ECB and the Euro," Working Papers eg0050, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
- Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2007. "Policy Words and Policy Deeds: The ECB and the Euro," Working Paper Series 35-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008.
"Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence,"
1038, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-45, December.
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Blinder, Alan S. & Ehrmann, Michael & de Haan, Jakob & Fratzscher, Marcel & Jansen, David-Jan, 2008. "Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence," Working Paper Series 0898, European Central Bank.
- Ullrich, Katrin, 2008.
"Inflation expectations of experts and ECB communication,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 93-108, March.
- Ullrich, Katrin, 2007. "Inflation Expectations of Experts and ECB Communication," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-054, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The asymmetric impact of macroeconomic announcements on U.S. Government bond rate level and volatility," MPRA Paper 5381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Damian Tambini, 2010. "What are financial journalists for?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28840, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Péter Gábriel & Klára Pintér, 2006. "The effect of the MNB’s communication on financial markets," MNB Working Papers 2006/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
- Moessner, Richhild & Allen, William A., 2013. "Central bank swap line effectiveness during the euro area sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 167-178.
- Marek Rozkrut, 2008. "It’s not only WHAT is said, it’s also WHO the speaker is. Evaluating the effectiveness of central bank communication," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 47, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The effects of a greater central bank credibility on interest rates level and volatility response to news in the U.K," MPRA Paper 5263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jakob Haan, 2008. "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 375-398, December.
- Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Peter Howells, 2007. "Central bank communication, transparency and interest rate volatility: Evidence from the USA," Working Papers 0704, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
- Sahminan Sahminan, 2008. "Effectiveness of monetary policy communication in Indonesia and Thailand," BIS Working Papers 262, Bank for International Settlements.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paula Drew).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.