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News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks

In: The Future of Inflation Targeting

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Author Info

  • Ellis Connolly

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Marion Kohler

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the effect of news relating to the expected path of monetary policy on interest rate futures. Central banks’ transparency is in most respects much greater than it was a decade ago, and so central bank communication needs to be included as a potential source of news. We therefore consider four types of news: macroeconomic news, overseas news, monetary policy surprises and central bank communication. The effect of these types of news on daily changes in interest rate futures is estimated using an EGARCH model for a panel of six economies. We find that interest rate expectations respond to both macroeconomic and policy news, although the response to macroeconomic news is larger, especially once we include foreign news. Overall, the results suggest that the impact of the RBA’s communication policy is in line with other major central banks, and significantly influences (and informs) expectations of future monetary policy.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

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This chapter was published in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.) The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages , 2004.

This item is provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Annual Conference Volume with number acv2004-08.

Handle: RePEc:rba:rbaacv:acv2004-08

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Related research

Keywords: central bank communication; transparency; financial markets;

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Cited by:
  1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Marek Rozkrut, 2008. "It’s not only WHAT is said, it’s also WHO the speaker is. Evaluating the effectiveness of central bank communication," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 47, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  3. Jakob Haan, 2008. "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 375-398, December.
  4. Péter Gábriel & Klára Pintér, 2006. "The effect of the MNB’s communication on financial markets," MNB Working Papers 2006/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).

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