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The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations

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  • Friedrich Heinemann

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  • Katrin Ullrich

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of the monetary regime change from the Bundesbank to the ECB on inflation expectations. In the theoretical part, the Barro-Gordon model is used to derive the potential effect of a new central bank on inflation and inflation expectations. The econometric investigation is based on a flexible specification of expectation formation which allows both for rational and adaptive elements. The results indicate that the monetary regime change did not have a strong and lasting impact on the formation of inflation expectations and that the credibility of both central banks is not perceived to differ significantly anymore. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 17 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 175-195

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:17:y:2006:i:2:p:175-195

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

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Keywords: inflation expectations; credibility; ZEW financial market survey; ECB; EMU; Carlson-Parkin;

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References

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  1. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  2. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-31, August.
  3. Robert J. Barro, 1986. "Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy with Incomplete Information," NBER Working Papers 1794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. John A. Carlson & Neven T. Valev, 2002. "A Disinflation Trade-Off: Speed Versus Final Destination," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 450-456, July.
  6. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1985. "Formation of Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 948-75, December.
  7. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 169-90, April.
  8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  9. Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
  10. Mitchell, James, 2002. "The use of non-normal distributions in quantifying qualitative survey data on expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 101-107, June.
  11. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2004. "Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 121, Netherlands Central Bank.
  12. Balcombe, Kelvin, 1996. "The Carlson-Parkin method applied to NZ price expectations using QSBO survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 51-57, April.
  13. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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Cited by:
  1. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
  2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 954-971, October.
  3. Jörg Breitung, 2008. "Assessing the Rationality of Survey Expectations: The Probability Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 228(5+6), pages 630-643, December.
  4. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2251, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Svatopluk Kapounek & Lubor Lacina, 2011. "Inflation Perceptions and Anticipations in the Old Eurozone Member States," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(2), pages 120-139.
  6. Ullrich, Katrin, 2007. "Inflation Expectations of Experts and ECB Communication," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-054, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  7. Guglielmo maria Coporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The EURO and Inflation Uncertainty In The EMU," Working Papers 2005_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  8. Tomasz Lyziak, 2014. "Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 178, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.

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