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Inflation Perceptions and Anticipations in the Old Eurozone Member States

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Author Info

  • Svatopluk Kapounek
  • Lubor Lacina

Abstract

There is empirical evidence that the introduction of the euro led to a significant increase of perceived inflation in most countries. Such an increase and persistence in the perceived inflation might then have an impact on inflation expectations and other macroeconomic variables. The authors have used expectational errors to describe the difference between inflation expectations/anticipations and its observed values, subsequently to identify the causality between these variables.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 2011 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 120-139

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Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2011:y:2011:i:2:id:392:p:120-139

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Related research

Keywords: stationarity; perceived and anticipated inflation; monetary integration; Granger Non-Causality; ADF test; adaptive and rational expectations hypothesis;

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References

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  1. Heinemann, Friedrich & Ullrich, Katrin, 2004. "The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-01, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. John A. Carlson & Neven T. Valev, 2002. "A Disinflation Trade-Off: Speed Versus Final Destination," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 450-456, July.
  3. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1985. "Formation of Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 948-75, December.
  4. Robert Dimand, 2002. "Patinkin on Irving Fisher's monetary economics," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 308-326.
  5. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2004. "Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 121, Netherlands Central Bank.
  6. Kemp, Simon & Willetts, Karyn, 1996. "Remembering the price of wool," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 115-125, February.
  7. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2006. "Euro or “Teuro”?: The Euro-induced Perceived Inflation in Germany," DQE Working Papers 5, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
  8. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ulrich Fritsche & Michael Graff & Michael Lamla & Sarah Lein & Volker Nitsch & David Liechti & Daniel Triet, 2009. "The euro and prices: changeover-related inflation and price convergence in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 381, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  10. Paolo Del Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini, 2006. "Perceived and Measured Inflation after the Launch of the Euro: Explaining the Gap in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 155-192, November.
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