Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data
Abstract
This paper uses the European Commission’s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the Euro in Europe. Consumers’ responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on past national inflation rates than on the ECB’s anchor for price stability. The convergence in inflation expectations does not appear to be faster than the convergence in actual inflation rates. Regarding inflation uncertainty, the data indicate a relationship with country size, suggesting that within EMU, inflation uncertainty may increase in countries that have a smaller influence on ECB policy.Download Info
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1667.Length:
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1667
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Related research
Keywords: monetary union; inflation differentials; consumer survey;Other versions of this item:
- Ivo J.M. Arnold & Jan J.G. Lemmen, 2008. "Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 325-346, July.
- NEP-ALL-2006-04-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-04-08 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2006-04-08 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2006-04-08 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-04-08 (Monetary Economics)
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Forges, Françoise, 2005. "The ex ante incentive compatible core of an exchange economy with and without indivisibilities," Open Access publications from Université Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/167, Université Paris-Dauphine.
- Steffen Henzel & Stephan Sauer, 2006. "Konsequenzen der Inflationsunterschiede im Euroraum," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(11), pages 12-27, 06.
- Andrzej Toroj, 2009. "Macroeconomic adjustment and heterogeneity in the euro area," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 54, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33, 09.
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