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Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness

In: The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009

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  • Tomasz Lyziak

Abstract

This paper presents numerical measures of European consumers’ inflation expectations derived on the basis of European Commission qualitative survey data with different quantification methods, i.e. with the probability method, the regression method and the logistic (and linear) function method. The study aims at assessing differences between those measures and the resulting uncertainty in measuring inflation expectations of this group of economic agents. Moreover, in the empirical part of the paper the formation of expectations by consumers in European economies is examined, with a particular focus on estimating the degree of forward-lookingness of expectations.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Irving Fisher Committee, 2010. "The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009," IFC Bulletins, Bank for International Settlements, number 33, October -.
    This item is provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series IFC Bulletins chapters with number 33-19.

    Handle: RePEc:bis:bisifc:33-19

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    1. Francisco Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2010. "Inflation (mis)perceptions in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 353-369, October.
    2. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
    3. Paolo Del Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini, 2004. "LÂ’introduzione dellÂ’euro e la divergenza tra infl azione rilevata e percepita," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 532, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
    5. Smith, Jeremy & McAleer, Michael, 1995. "Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 165-85, April-Jun.
    6. Manfred Fluch & Helmut Stix, 2005. "Perceived Inflation in Austria – Extent, Explanations, Effects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 22–47.
    7. Magnus Forsells & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2004(1), pages 13-41.
    8. Jonung, Lars, 1986. "Uncertainty about inflationary perceptions and expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 315-325, September.
    9. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-31, August.
    10. Slacalek, Jirka & Fritsche, Ulrich & Dovern, Jonas & Döpke, Jörg, 2005. "European inflation expectations dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    11. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 169-90, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Tomasz Lyziak, 2014. "Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 178, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.

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