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The anchoring of European inflation expectations

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Author Info
Jan Marc Berk
Gerbert Hebbink

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Abstract

This paper analyses the usefulness of direct measures of consumers’ perceptions and expectations of inflation for monetary policy and investigates the degree to which these variables are anchored. We inter alia seek to xplore whether there is a difference in reaction of consumers in countries with more credible central banks and those from countries with less credible central banks. We moreover investigate whether the introduction of euro coins and banknotes in 2002, that can be interpreted as a structural shock, has significantly affected the inflation rate as perceived by consumers. We find that European inflation expectations are relatively robust to sudden changes in inflation or monetary policy surprises, regardless of the credibility of the central bank. The introduction of the euro, however, significantly affected the inflation perception of European consumers.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 116.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:116

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation expectations; Monetary policy; Survey data;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  5. Bernd Hayo, 1998. "Money-Output Granger Causality Revisited: An Empirical Analysis of EU Countries," Macroeconomics 9809009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hayo, Bernd, 1998. "Inflation culture, central bank independence and price stability," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 241-263, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Cheung, Y. -W. & Chinn, M. D., 1998. "Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 813-830, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 1998. " Cointegration Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 651-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Berk, Jan Marc, 1999. "Measuring Inflation Expectations: A Survey Data Approach," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Consumers' inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe," Serie Research Memoranda 0020, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Simmons, Peter & Weiserbs, Daniel, 1992. "Consumer Price Perceptions and Expectations," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 35-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
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  15. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  16. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Tomasz Lyziak, 2003. "Consumer inflation expectations in Poland," Working Paper Series 287, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Smyth, David J., 1992. "Measurement errors in survey forecasts of expected inflation and the rationality of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 439-448. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ivo J.M. Arnold & Jan J.G. Lemmen, 2008. "Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 325-346, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Henry Sabrowski, 2008. "Inflation Expectation Formation of German Consumers: Rational or Adaptive?," Working Paper Series in Economics 100, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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