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Reviewing adjustment dynamics in EMU: from overheating to overcooling

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Author Info

  • Servaas Deroose
  • Sven Langedijk
  • Werner Roeger

Abstract

This paper analyses how adjustment dynamics, in an environment with some degree of price and wage rigidity, may create and strengthen asymmetric developments in a monetary union. It presents a simple illustrative model of adjustment dynamics that reproduces quite nicely actual developments in the first years of EMU. The model is used to analyse adjustments to two types of shocksrelative competitiveness shifts and demand disturbances. It is shown that the interaction between real exchange rate adjustment and real interest rate developments may contribute to periods of overheating and overcooling during which output might be for a number of years either above or below potential.Furthermore, the paper looks at the circumstances in which smooth adjustment to shocks can be expected and, on the other hand, when a cycle with greater amplitude is more likely. Finally, the paper examines policy options that could improve the functioning of EMU. The analysis provides another strong argument for pressing ahead with reforms that increase flexibility in labour and product markets and further integrate the economies of the euro area.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 198.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0198

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Related research

Keywords: economic and monetary union; EMU; adjustment dynamics; demand disturbances; relative competitiveness shifts; overheating; overcooling; Deroose; Langedijk; Roeger;

References

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  1. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1996. "Integration, specialization, and adjustment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 959-967, April.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld and Giovanni Peri., 1998. "Regional Nonadjustment and Fiscal Policy: Lessons for EMU," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-096, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  4. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jan Hansen & Werner Roeger, 2000. "Estimation of real equilibrium exchange rates," European Economy - Economic Papers 144, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  6. Roel M. W. J. Beetsma & Xavier Debrun & Franc Klaassen, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," IMF Working Papers 01/178, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Michael Reutter & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," CESifo Working Paper Series 377, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Artis, Michael J & Buti, Marco, 2000. ""Close to Balance or in Surplus": A Policy Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," CEPR Discussion Papers 2515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Fritz Breuss & Andrea Weber, 1999. "Economic Policy Coordination in the EMU: Implications for the Stability Pact," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 26, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  10. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union," Economics Working Papers 90-132, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Christopher Allsopp & Michael J. Artis, 2003. "The Assessment: EMU, Four Years On," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-29.
  12. Steinar Holden, 2001. "Does Price Stability Exacerbate Labour Market Rigidities in the EMU?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 403-418, December.
  13. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
  14. Steinar Holden, 2002. "The Costs of Price Stability - Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Europe," NBER Working Papers 8865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Stephen Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert Sonora, 1999. "Price Level Convergence Among United States Cities: Lessons for the European Central Bank," Working Papers 99-01, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  16. Peter Hoeller & Claude Giorno & Christine de la Maisonneuve, 2002. "Overheating in Small Euro Area Economies: Should Fiscal Policy React?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 323, OECD Publishing.
  17. John FitzGerald & David Duffy & Diarmaid Smyth, 2000. "Managing an Economy Under EMU: The Case of Ireland," Papers WP127, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  18. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
  19. Patrick Honohan & Brendan Walsh, 2002. "Catching Up with the Leaders: The Irish Hare," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 1-78.
  20. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  21. repec:fth:eeccco:144 is not listed on IDEAS
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