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Estimation of real equilibrium exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Hansen
  • Werner Roeger

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide a consistent and transparent theoretical and empirical framework to analyse real effective equilibrium exchange rates for a large number of industrial countries. The theoretical and empirical model, as well as the applied methodology, are closely related to a recently published working paper by the IMF (Alberola et.al (1999)).In the theoretical part, a macroeconomic model of internal and external equilibrium is presented (chapters 2, 3 and 4). The empirical part estimates a simplified version of the theoretical model and results are thereafter reported and evaluated on a country by country basis (chapter 5). The purpose of the empirical part is not to arrive at point estimates for equilibrium exchange rates, but rather to provide some basic econometric evidence as a complement and illustration of the theoretical analysis. The empirical model and statistical methodology is kept simple and uniform for all countries in order to facilitate interpretation and evaluation of the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Hansen & Werner Roeger, 2000. "Estimation of real equilibrium exchange rates," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 144, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0144
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    Cited by:

    1. Constantinos Alexiou & Joseph G. Nellis, 2013. "Challenging the Raison d’etre of Internal Devaluation in the Context of the Greek Economy," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 813-836, December.
    2. Stefan Hohberger & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2020. "The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplus," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 85-103, March.
    3. Rahn, Jörg, 2003. "Bilateral equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    5. Michael Funke & Jorg Rahn, 2004. "By How Much Is The Chinese Renminbi Undervalued?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 40, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Rahn, Jörg, 2003. "Bilateral equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2002. "The Weakness of the Euro: Is it Really a Mystery?," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 27-42, 04.
      • Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2002. "The Weakness of the Euro: Is it Really a Mystery?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2002(CESIFOFOR), pages 27-42, 04.
    8. Irene Daskalopoulou & Anastasia Petrou, 2006. "Small Business Performance in Urban Tourism," ERSA conference papers ersa06p399, European Regional Science Association.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kari Heimonen, 2009. "The euro–dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    12. Paul Welfens, 2010. "Transatlantic banking crisis: analysis, rating, policy issues," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 3-48, May.
    13. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    14. Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just How Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 465-489, April.
    15. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    16. Richard Portes, 2002. "The Euro and the International Financial System," Chapters, in: Marco Buti & André Sapir (ed.), EMU and Economic Policy in Europe, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Servaas Deroose & Sven Langedijk & Werner Roeger, 2004. "Reviewing adjustment dynamics in EMU: from overheating to overcooling," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 198, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Regling, Klaus & Deroose, Servaas & Felke, Reinhard & Kutos, Paul, 2010. "The Euro After Its First Decade: Weathering the Financial Storm and Enlarging the Euro Area," ADBI Working Papers 205, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    19. Jörg Rahn, 2004. "Bilaterial equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," Macroeconomics 0401010, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    exchange rates; modelling;

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