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Productivity Growth and Employment: Theory and Panel Estimates

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  • Christopher A. Pissarides
  • Giovanna Vallanti

Abstract

Theoretical predictions of the effect of TFP growth on employment are ambiguous, anddepend on the extent to which new technology is embodied in new jobs. We estimate amodel for employment, wages and investment with an annual panel for the United States,Japan and Europe and find that TFP growth increases employment. For the United StatesTFP growth explains the trend change in unemployment. We evaluate the model and findthat creative destruction plays no part in aggregate unemployment dynamics. The model canexplain up to half of the estimated impact of growth on unemployment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0663.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0663

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Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP

Related research

Keywords: TFP growth; employment; creative destruction; capitalization effect; unemployment dynamics; embodied technology;

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  1. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
  2. James Harrigan, 1996. "Technology, factor supplies, and international specialization: estimating the neoclassical model," Staff Reports 15, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & David Jestaz & Edmund S Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2000. "Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5571, Sciences Po.
  5. Hoon, Hian Teck & Phelps, Edmund S., 1997. "Growth, wealth and the natural rate: Is Europe's jobs crisis a growth crisis?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 549-557, April.
  6. Stephen Machin & John Van Reenen, 1998. "Technology and changes in skill structure: evidence from seven OECD countries," IFS Working Papers W98/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  7. Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2002. "The Dynamics of Technological Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(3), pages 737-760, August.
  8. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
  9. Hornstein, Andreas & Krusell, Per & Violante, Giovanni L, 2002. "Vintage Capital as an Origin of Inequalities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Boeri, Tito, 1996. "Is Job Turnover Countercyclical?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(4), pages 603-25, October.
  11. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wouter J. Den Haan & Christian Haefke & Garey Ramey, 2004. "Turbulence and unemployment in a job matching model," Economics Working Papers 792, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Olmo Silva, 2004. "Entrepreneurship: Can the Jack-of-All-Trades Attitude be Aquired?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0665, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Thomas B. King, 2005. "Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2005. "The replacement problem in frictional economies : a near equivalence result," Working Paper 05-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  5. Burcu Eyigungor, 2008. "Specific capital and vintage effects on the dynamics of unemployment and vacancies," Working Papers 08-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  6. MG. Ladu, 2005. "Total Factor Productivity Growth and Employment: A Simultaneous Equations Model Estimate," Working Paper CRENoS 200506, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  7. Thomas B. King & James Morley, 2005. "In search of the natural rate of unemployment," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2006. "Technology-policy interaction in frictional labor markets," Working Paper 06-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  9. MG. Ladu, 2005. "Growth and Employment: A survey on the Demand Side of the Labour Market," Working Paper CRENoS 200507, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  10. Gianluca Violante & Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 2004. "A Quantitative Study of the Replacement Problem in Frictional Economies," 2004 Meeting Papers 64, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Hornstein, Andreas & Krusell, Per & Violante, Giovanni L, 2005. "The Replacement Problem in Frictional Economies: An 'Equivalence Result'," CEPR Discussion Papers 5026, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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