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Productivity Growth and Employment: Theory and Panel Estimates

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  • Christopher A. Pissarides
  • Giovanna Vallanti

Abstract

Theoretical predictions of the effect of TFP growth on employment are ambiguous, anddepend on the extent to which new technology is embodied in new jobs. We estimate amodel for employment, wages and investment with an annual panel for the United States,Japan and Europe and find that TFP growth increases employment. For the United StatesTFP growth explains the trend change in unemployment. We evaluate the model and findthat creative destruction plays no part in aggregate unemployment dynamics. The model canexplain up to half of the estimated impact of growth on unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher A. Pissarides & Giovanna Vallanti, 2004. "Productivity Growth and Employment: Theory and Panel Estimates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0663, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0663
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ugur, Mehmet & Mitra, Arup, 2017. "Technology Adoption and Employment in Less Developed Countries: A Mixed-Method Systematic Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Burcu Eyigungor, 2010. "Specific Capital and Vintage Effects on the Dynamics of Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1214-1237, June.
    4. Wouter J. den Haan & Christian Haefke & Garey Ramey, 2005. "Turbulence And Unemployment In A Job Matching Model," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1360-1385, December.
    5. Siedschlag Iulia & Kaitila Ville & McQuinn John & Zhang Xiaoheng, 2014. "International Investment and Firm Performance: Empirical Evidence from Small Open Economies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(6), pages 662-687, December.
    6. Kokko Ari & Söderlund Bengt & Tingvall Patrik Gustavsson, 2014. "Redirecting International Trade: Contracts, Conflicts, and Institutions," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(6), pages 688-721, December.
    7. King, Thomas B. & Morley, James, 2007. "In search of the natural rate of unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 550-564, March.
    8. Gaetano Lisi & Maurizio Pugno, 2015. "A matching model of endogenous growth and underground firms," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 11(4), pages 347-369, December.
    9. Oberholzer, Basil, 2023. "Post-growth transition, working time reduction, and the question of profits," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    10. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2007. "Technology—Policy Interaction in Frictional Labour-Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(4), pages 1089-1124.
    11. Arup Mitra & Chandan Sharma, 2020. "Employment and TFP Impact of Technologies in the Developing World: Domestic versus Imported Expertise," IEG Working Papers 410, Institute of Economic Growth.
    12. Violante, Giovanni & Hornstein, Andreas, 2005. "The Replacement Problem in Frictional Economies: An 'Equivalence Result'," CEPR Discussion Papers 5026, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Thomas B. King, 2005. "Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. MG. Ladu, 2005. "Total Factor Productivity Growth and Employment: A Simultaneous Equations Model Estimate," Working Paper CRENoS 200506, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    15. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2005. "The Replacement Problem In Frictional Economies: A Near-Equivalence Result," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 1007-1057, September.
    16. MG. Ladu, 2005. "Growth and Employment: A survey on the Demand Side of the Labour Market," Working Paper CRENoS 200507, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    17. Modinat O. Olusoji, 2016. "A cross causal analysis of employment and economic growth in Nigeria," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 59(4), pages 553-562, December.
    18. Syamsir Syamsir, 2015. "Public Service Motivation among Indonesian Employees: a Critical Review Toward the Psm Theory," European Journal of Social Sciences Education and Research Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, September.
    19. Ugur, Mehmet & Mitra, Arup, 2014. "Effects of innovation on employment in low-income countries: A mixed-method systematic review," MPRA Paper 58214, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Aug 2014.
    20. Gianluca Violante & Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 2004. "A Quantitative Study of the Replacement Problem in Frictional Economies," 2004 Meeting Papers 64, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Olmo Silva, 2004. "Entrepreneurship: Can the Jack-of-All-Trades Attitude be Aquired?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0665, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TFP growth; employment; creative destruction; capitalization effect; unemployment dynamics; embodied technology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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