Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations
AbstractThis paper assesses empirically the two main alternative specifications of the output gap-based Phillips relation for the euro area: the older expectations-augmented Phillips curve and the new Keynesian Phillips curve. The main focus is on the role of expectations and comparison of the two theories. Instead of imposing rational expectations, an alternative and in principle less restrictive approach is applied to operationalising expectations. Direct measures of inflation expectations, ie OECD forecasts, are used as empirical proxies of economic agents’ inflation expectations. The main interest is in the euro area as a whole, although potential heterogeneity of inflation dynamics is also examined across eleven EMU countries. According to the results, inflation expectations are central to the inflation process in all euro area countries. The paper finds evidence that the new Keynesian Phillips curve fits the euro area data slightly better than the expectations-augmented Phillips curve. Research on expectations formation would be an important complement to the present study.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0405015.
Date of creation: 14 May 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://188.8.131.52
Phillips curve; expectations; euro area;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-05-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2004-05-26 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2004-05-16 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 517-31, October.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
- Sbordone, Argia, 1998.
"Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness,"
653, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
- Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 200112, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 199822, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Roberts, John M., 1997.
"Is inflation sticky?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
- Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995.
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February.
- Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1994.
"The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
94-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
- Pierpaolo Benigno & J. David López-Salido, 2002.
"Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the Euro Area,"
Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers
0215, Banco de Espa�a.
- Benigno, Pierpaolo & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 587-614, April.
- Pierpaolo Benigno & David López-Salido, 2002. "Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the euro area," International Finance Discussion Papers 749, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Benigno, Pierpaolo & López-Salido, David, 2002. "Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0178, European Central Bank.
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001.
"European inflation dynamics,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "European Inflation Dynamics," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0020, Banco de Espa�a.
- Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & López-Salido, J David, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997.
"Is there an inflation puzzle?,"
9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Edith Gagnon & Hashmat Khan, 2001. "New Phillips Curve with Alternative Marginal Cost Measures forCanada, the United States, and the Euro Area," Working Papers 01-25, Bank of Canada.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "Should monetary policy target labor's share of income?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.