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Should monetary policy target labor's share of income?

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Author Info
Jeremy Rudd
Karl Whelan

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Abstract

In recent work, Woodford (2001) presents evidence that using real unit labor costs (labor's share of income) as a driving variable in the new-Keynesian Phillips curve yields a superior fit for inflation relative to a model that uses deterministically detrended real GDP. This evidence leads him to conclude that the output gap the deviation between actual and potential output is better captured by the labor income share, in turn implying that the monetary authority should raise interest rates in response to increases in this variable. We document that the empirical case for the superiority of the labor's share version of the new-Keynesian model is actually quite weak, and conclude that there is little reason to view the labor income share as an appropriate target for monetary policy.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2002:i:mar:x:4

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Keywords: Monetary policy;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2001. "The case for price stability," Working Paper 01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  3. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Costs," NBER Working Papers 6909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Campbell, John Y & Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Why Is Consumption So Smooth?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(3), pages 357-73, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King, 2005. "Pricing, production, and persistence," Working Papers 05-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Argia Sbordone, 2002. "An optimizing model of U.S. wage and price dynamics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Araújo, E. & Santos, T. T., 2004. "A dinâmica da Inflação Brasileira após o Plano Real," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_45, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
  2. Günter Coenen, 2003. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Working Paper Series 290, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Paloviita , Maritta & Mayes , David, 2004. "The use of real time information in Phillips curve relationships for the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 16/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan," Working Paper Series 181, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Paloviita , Maritta, 2002. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Research Discussion Papers 20/2002, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Maritta Paloviita, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 847-860, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Maritta Paloviita, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Macroeconomics 0405015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paloviita , Maritta, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations: further results," Research Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lars Sondergaard, 2003. "Using Instrumental Variables to Estimate the Share of Backward- Looking Firms," Macroeconomics 0308009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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