Does the labor share of income drive inflation?

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Does the labor share of income drive inflation?

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Jeremy Rudd
Karl Whelan

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Karl Whelan

Abstract

Woodford (2001) has presented evidence that the new-Keynesian Phillips curve fits the empirical behavior of inflation well when the labor income share is used as a driving variable, but fits poorly when deterministically detrended output is used. He concludes that the output gap--the deviation between actual and potential output--is better captured by the labor income share, in turn implying that central banks should raise interest rates in response to increases in the labor share. We show that the empirical evidence generally suggests that the labor share version of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve is a very poor model of price inflation. We conclude that there is little reason to view the labor income share as a good measure of the output gap, or as an appropriate variable for incorporation in a monetary policy rule.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2002-30.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2002-30

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Paper
- Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2002. "Does the Labour Share of Income Drive Inflation?," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/02, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2001. "The case for price stability," Working Paper 01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2001. "The Case for Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 8423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
Other versions:
- Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 200112, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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Other versions:
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Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "An Optimizing Model of U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics," Departmental Working Papers 200110, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Argia Sbordone, 2002. "An optimizing model of U.S. wage and price dynamics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2003. "Can rational expectations sticky-price models explain inflation dynamics?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Karl Whelan & Jeremy Rudd, 2003. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 181, Society for Computational Economics.
- Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2003. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/03, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
- Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March. [Downloadable!]
O'Reilly,Gerard & Whelan, Karl, 2004. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/04, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2004. "Has euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?," Working Paper Series 335, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
- Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 38, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June. [Downloadable!]
Tillmann, Peter, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe : does it fit or does it fail?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
Holmberg, Karolina, 2006. "Derivation and Estimation of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 197, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]

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