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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe : does it fit or does it fail?

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Author Info
Tillmann, Peter
Abstract

The canonical New Keynesian model specifies inflation as the present-value of future real marginal cost. This paper tests this New Keynesian Phillips Curve and exploits projections of future real marginal cost generated by VAR models to assess the model?s ability to match the behavior of actual inflation. In accordance to the literature, the model fits Euro data well at first sight. However, analyses of this kind disregard the considerable degree of uncertainty surrounding VAR forecasts. A set of bias-corrected bootstrapped confidence bands reveals that this result is consistent with both a well fitting and a completely failing model. Allowing for inflation inertia through backward-looking indexation narrows confidence bands around measures of the model?s fit but, still, cannot generate sufficiently precise estimates. Hence, we cannot say whether the model fits or fails. --

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2005,04.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2938

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Keywords: New Keynesian Phillips Curve; present-value model; marginal cost; VAR; bootstrap;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frode Brevik & Manfred Gärtner, 2005. "Partisan Theory and the New Keynesian and Sticky-Information Phillips Curves," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-25, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  2. Juselius, Mikael, 2008. "Testing the New Keynesian Model on U.S. and Euro Area Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(24), pages 1-26. [Downloadable!]
  3. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Virén, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Macroeconomics 0508031, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gene Ambrocio & Tae-Seok Jang, 2009. "Productivity Shocks and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Evidence from US and Euro Area," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 453, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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