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Internal or external devaluation? What does the EC Consumer Survey tell us about macroeconomic adjustment in the Euro area?

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  • Arnold, Ivo J.M.
  • Soederhuizen, Beau

Abstract

This paper explores the dynamics of national inflation expectations within the euro area during the recent crisis. Using the European Commission's Consumer Survey, we find that the strong anchoring of area-wide inflation expectations, which is typically found in the literature, does not extend to individual member states. We also measure the effect of the crisis on national inflation expectations using sovereign bond spreads and find that increases in sovereign risk have a significant negative effect on inflation expectations. This suggests that consumers expect their country to adjust through a process of internal devaluation. In contrast, we find no evidence that tensions in the sovereign bond markets increase national inflation expectations, as one would be expect under an exit or breakup scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2016. "Internal or external devaluation? What does the EC Consumer Survey tell us about macroeconomic adjustment in the Euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 88-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:64:y:2016:i:c:p:88-103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.02.011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; Anchoring; Macroeconomic adjustment mechanism; Euro crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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