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The Role of Inflation Differentials in Regional Adjustment: Evidence from the United States

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Author Info
Ivo J.M. Arnold ()
Clemens J.M. Kool ()

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Abstract

Within a monetary union, regional inflation differentials lead to a competition between the real interest rate and wealth channels on the one hand and the real exchange rate channel on the other hand in the transmission of regional shocks. This may have implications for the length and vehemence of regional business cycles. This paper tries to quantify how these forces work against each other using regional data for the United States. Our estimates indicate that, following an increase in the regional inflation rate, in the short run the pro-cyclical effect through the real interest rate and wealth channels is strongest. After a period of about 3-4 years the cumulative worsening of the competitive position asserts its influence. Regional cycles in the housing market have a clear pro-cyclical effect and are, on their part, affected by regional real interest rates and real growth.

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Paper provided by Utrecht School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 04-13.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:0413

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Related research
Keywords: monetary union; regional effects; inflation differentials; monetary transmission;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Kenny, Geoff, 1999. "Modelling the demand and supply sides of the housing market: evidence from Ireland1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 389-409, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alexander Ludwig & Torsten Sløk, 2002. "The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Prices on Consumption in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/1, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & John M. Quigley, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Margarida Duarte & Alexander L. Wolman, 2002. "Regional inflation in a currency union: fiscal policy vs. fundamentals," International Finance Discussion Papers 746, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2000. "Price Level Convergence Among United States Cities: Lessons for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 7681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. John H. Rogers, 2001. "Price level convergence, relative prices, and inflation in Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 699, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jan Marc Berk & Job Swank, 2002. "Regional Price Adjustment in a Monetary Union," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-077/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  12. Enrique Alberola & José Manuel Maqués, . "On the revelance and nature of regional inflation differentials: The case of Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy 35, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Baffoe-Bonnie, John, 1998. "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-97, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ivo J.M. Arnold & Jan J.G. Lemmen, 2008. "Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 325-346, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Carlos J. Rodriguez-Fuentes & Antonio Olivera-Herrera & David Padron-Marrero, 2004. "Monetary policy and inflation persistence in the Eurozone," ERSA conference papers ersa04p218, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ivo J.M. Arnold, 2005. "Optimal regional biases in ECB interest rate setting," Nyenrode Research Papers Series 05-01, Nyenrode Business Universiteit. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Clemens J.M. Kool, 2005. "What Drives ECB Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 05-03, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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