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Has Monetary Policy Reacted To Asset Price Movements: Evidence From The Uk

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Author Info
A. Kontonikas ()
A. Montagnoli

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices in the context of empirical policy rules. We begin our analysis by establishing the forecasting ability of house and stock price changes with respect to future aggregate demand. We then report estimates of monetary policy reaction functions for the United Kingdom over the period 1992-2003. We find that UK policymakers appear to take into account the effect of asset price inflation when setting interest rates with a higher weight being assigned to property market fluctuations. Asset inflationaugmented rules describe more accurately actual policy, and the results are robust to modelling the effect of the Bank of England independence.

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Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Public Policy Discussion Papers with number 02-11.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bru:bruppp:02-11

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Christopher Kent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "Asset-price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9709, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2000. "Financial Variables and the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 112, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  6. Alchian, Armen A & Klein, Benjamin, 1973. "On a Correct Measure of Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 173-91, Part I Fe. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & John M. Quigley, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  13. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Mark M. Spiegel, 1998. "Central bank independence and inflation expectations: evidence from British index-linked gilts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-14. [Downloadable!]
  15. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," Staff Reports 88, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  16. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  20. Martin, Christopher & Costas Milas, 2002. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 137, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Goodhart, Charles, 2001. "What Weight Should Be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(472), pages F335-56, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alexandros Kontonikas & Christos Ioannidis, 2003. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Price Misalignments?," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-19, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2005. "Financial Condition Index And Interest Rate Settings: A Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 8_2005, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Asset Price Misalignments," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-22, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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