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Financial Variables and the Conduct of Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Goodhart, Charles (London School of Economics)
Hofmann, Boris (Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung)
Abstract

This paper analyses the role of financial variables in the conduct of monetary policy. In the baseline model for the analysis of interest rules, the inflation rate depends on the output gap, which is solely determined by its own lags and the lagged short-term real interest rate. However, from a theoretical point of view there are several other financial variables which may affect aggregate demand, and should therefore be taken into account in the estimation of an output gap equation. In order to assess the importance of financial variables such as asset prices and monetary aggregates for aggregate demand, we estimate a small structural model for 17 developed countries using quarterly data spanning 1973 - 1998. The results indicate that the effect of other financial variables, especially property and share prices, on the output gap is highly significant. It appears that in almost all of the countries in our data set it is necessary to control for the effect of other financial variables on the output gap in order to find a significant effect for monetary policy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 112.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0112

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Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy; Financial Variables;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    Other versions:
  2. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 1999. "Asset price fluctuation and price indices," Working Paper Series WP-99-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2002. "Equitity prices and Monetary Policy: An Overview with an Exploratory Model," NIPE Working Papers 1/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alexandros Kontonikas & Christos Ioannidis, 2003. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Price Misalignments?," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-19, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. A. Kontonikas & A. Montagnoli, 2002. "Has Monetary Policy Reacted To Asset Price Movements: Evidence From The Uk," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2002. "Monetary indicators and policy rules in the P-star model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2005. "Financial Condition Index And Interest Rate Settings: A Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 8_2005, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Asset Price Misalignments," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-22, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. A. Kontonikas & A. Montagnoli, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Wealth Effects," Public Policy Discussion Papers 02-30, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bask, Mikael, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability," Working Papers 540, Hanken School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christos Ioannidis, & Oreste Napolitano, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy and the Asset Market:A Non-cooperative Game," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-25, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Wong Keung-Wing & Habibullah Khan & Jun Du, 2006. "Money, Interest Rate and Stock Prices: New Evidence from Singapore and The United States," Departmental Working Papers wp0601, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. I. Arnold & P.J.A. van Els & J. de Haan, 2002. "Wealth Effects and Monetary Policy," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 719, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Stephen P Millard & Simon J Wells, . "The role of asset prices in transmitting monetary and other shocks," Bank of England working papers 188, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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