A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty
AbstractThis paper undertakes a Bayesian analysis of optimal monetary policy for the U.K. We estimate a suite of monetary-policy models that include both forward- and backward-looking representations as well as large- and small-scale models. We find an optimal simple Taylor-type rule that accounts for both model and parameter uncertainty. For the most part, backward-looking models are highly fault tolerant with respect to policies optimized for forward-looking representations, while forward-looking models have low fault tolerance with respect to policies optimized for backward-looking representations. In addition, backward-looking models often have lower posterior probabilities than forward-looking models. Bayesian policies therefore have characteristics suitable for inflation and output stabilization in forward-looking models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc
Monetary policy; Bayesian analysis; Statistical decision theory; Quantitative policy modeling;
Other versions of this item:
- Cogley, Timothy & de Paoli, Bianca & Matthes, Christian & Nikolov, Kalin & Yates, Tony, 2011. "A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 414, Bank of England.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
- C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lars Svensson & Noah Williams, 2005.
"Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting,"
NBER Working Papers
11733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Noah Williams & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 108, Society for Computational Economics.
- Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2005. "Monetary policy with model uncertainty: distribution forecast targeting," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,35, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- De Paoli, Bianca, 2009.
"Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 11-22, February.
- Bianca De Paoli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0639, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998.
"The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework,"
98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2005.
"Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation,"
Bank of England working papers
268, Bank of England.
- Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008. "Forecasting Using Bayesian and Information-Theoretic Model Averaging: An Application to U.K. Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 33-41, January.
- Kapetanios, G. & Labhard, V. & Price, S., 2007. "Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation," Working Papers 07/15, Department of Economics, City University London.
- George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2006. "Forecasting using Bayesian and Information Theoretic Model Averaging: An Application to UK Inflation," Working Papers 566, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2004.
"Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics,"
NBER Working Papers
10916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William Brock & Steven Durlauf & Kenneth West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: Some theory and empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 629-664, February.
- Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N. & West,K.D., 2004. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation : some theory and empirics," Working papers 19, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005.
"Benefits from U.S. monetary policy experimentation in the days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas,"
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, 02.
- Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G. & Pierse, Richard, 2008. "Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0870, European Central Bank.
- Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1599-1623, December.
- Francesca Rondina, 2010. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices," Working Papers 478, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.
- Francesca Rondina, 2010. "Policy Evaluation and Uncertainty About the Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Activity," Working Papers 522, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011.
"UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation,"
Cardiff Economics Working Papers
E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- Vito Polito & Peter Spencer, . "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Discussion Papers 11/21, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Ravenna, Federico, 2012. "Optimal monetary policy and model selection in a real-time learning environment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 322-325.
- Francesca Rondina, 2010.
"The role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices,"
UFAE and IAE Working Papers
834.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Rondina, Francesca, 2012. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the US postwar policy response to oil prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1009-1041.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.