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Monetary policy analysis with potentially misspecified models

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Marco Del Negro
Frank Schorfheide

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Abstract

Policy analysis with potentially misspecified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models faces two challenges: estimation of parameters that are relevant for policy trade-offs and treatment of estimated deviations from the cross-equation restrictions. This paper develops and explores policy analysis approaches that are based on either the generalized shock structure for the DSGE model or the explicit modeling of deviations from cross-equation restrictions. Using post-1982 U.S. data, we first quantify the degree of misspecification in a state-of-the art DSGE model and then document the performance of different interest rate feedback rules. We find that many of the policy prescriptions derived from the benchmark DSGE model are robust to the various treatments of misspecifications considered in this paper, but that quantitatively the cost of deviating from such prescriptions varies substantially.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 321.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:321

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Keywords: Time-series analysis Monetary policy Stochastic analysis Econometric models

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  34. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Timothy Kam & Kirdan Lees & Philip Liu, 2006. "Uncovering The Hit-List For Small Inflation Targeters: A Bayesian Structural Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-24, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko & Norman R. Swanson, 2006. "International Evidence on the Efficacy of new-Keynesian Models of Inflation Persistence," Working Papers 0602, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Guido W. Imbens & Whitney Newey & Geert Ridder, 2006. "Mean-squared-error Calculations for Average Treatment Effects," IEPR Working Papers 06.57, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
  4. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Matthias Mohr, 2005. "A Trend-Cycle(-Season) Filter," Econometrics 0508004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Policy predictions if the model doesn’t fit," Working Paper 2004-38, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Moon, Hyungsik Roger & Schorfheide, Frank, 2006. "Boosting Your Instruments: Estimation with Overidentifying Inequality Moment Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5605, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "How Sticky Is Sticky Enough? A Distributional and Impulse Response Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Models. Extended Working Paper Version," Departmental Working Papers 200612, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Henri Pagès & David Humphrey, 2005. "Settlement finality as a public good in large-value payment systems," Working Paper Series 506, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Fanelli, Luca, 2007. "Evaluating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-based learning," MPRA Paper 1616, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Katrin Tinn, 2005. "Optimal research in financial markets with heterogeneous private information a rational expectations model," Working Paper Series 493, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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