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Finding good predictors for inflation: a Bayesian model averaging approach

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Author Info

  • Sune Karlsson

    (Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden)

  • Tor Jacobson

    (Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, Sweden)

Abstract

We consider a Bayesian model averaging approach for the purpose of forecasting Swedish consumer price index inflation using a large set of potential indicators, comprising some 80 quarterly time series covering a wide spectrum of Swedish economic activity. The paper demonstrates how to efficiently and systematically evaluate (almost) all possible models that these indicators in combination can give rise to. The results, in terms of out-of-sample performance, suggest that Bayesian model averaging is a useful alternative to other forecasting procedures, in particular recognizing the flexibility by which new information can be incorporated. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.924
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
Pages: 479-496

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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:23:y:2004:i:7:p:479-496

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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  1. Smith, M. & Kohn, R., 1998. "Nonparametric Seemingly Unrelated Regression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  2. Palm, F. & Zellner, A., 1991. "To combine or not to combine? issues of combining forecasts," CORE Discussion Papers 1991022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
  4. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers 1998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993. "Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
  6. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
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