On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression

Author Info

Steel, Mark F. J.
Ley, Eduardo

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper examines the problem of variable selection in linear regression models. Bayesian model averaging has become an important tool in empirical settings with large numbers of potential regressors and relatively limited numbers of observations. The paper analyzes the effect of a variety of prior assumptions on the inference concerning model size, posterior inclusion probabilities of regressors, and predictive performance. The analysis illustrates these issues in the context of cross-country growth regressions using three datasets with 41 to 67 potential drivers of growth and 72 to 93 observations. The results favor particular prior structures for use in this and related contexts.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4238.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4238

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
Email:
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).

Other versions of this item:

Paper
- Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2008. "On the Effect of Prior Assumptions in Bayesian Model Averaging with Applications to Growth Regression," MPRA Paper 6637, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
- Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2008. "On the Effect of Prior Assumptions in Bayesian Model Averaging with Applications to Growth Regression," MPRA Paper 6772, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2007-06-11 (All new papers)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Theo Eicher & Chris Papageogiou & Adrian E Raftery, 2007. "Determining Growth Determinants: Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging," Working Papers UWEC-2007-25, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 1999. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 9903003, EconWPA, revised 06 Oct 2001. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576. [Downloadable!]
Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2006. "Is God in the Details? A Reexamination of the Role of Religion in Economic Growth," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0613, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
Gernot Doppelhofer & Melvyn Weeks, 2007. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Doppelhofer, G. & Weeks, M., 2005. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Carmen Fernández & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, . "Benchmark priors for Bayesian Model averaging," Working Papers 98-06, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
- Carmen Fernandez & E Ley & Mark F J Steel, 2004. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian models averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 1998. "Benchmark Priors for Bayesian Model Averaging," Econometrics 9804001, EconWPA, revised 31 Jul 1999. [Downloadable!]
Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2007. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 476-493, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2006. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4063, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993. "Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Min, C.K. & Zellner, A., 1992. "Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Methods for Combining Models and Forecasts with Applications to Forecasting International Growth Rates," Papers 90-92-23, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 235-322. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," NBER Working Papers 10025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
repec:att:wimass:1920315 is not listed on IDEAS
Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2005. "Growth Empirics under Model Uncertainty: Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 05/18, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarocinski, 2008. "Determinants of economic growth - will data tell?," Working Paper Series 852, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Ciccone, Antonio & Jarocinski, Marek, 2007. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6544, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarocinski, 2007. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," Economics Working Papers 1052, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
Magnus, J.R. & Powell, O.R. & Prufer, P., 2008. "A Comparison of Two Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics," Discussion Paper 2008-39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Enrique Moral-Benito, 2007. "Determinants Of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," Working Papers wp2007_0719, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also indexes book chapters.

This page was last updated on 2008-10-3.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.