Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Model Averaging In Economics

Contents:

Author Info

  • Enrique Moral-Benito

    ()
    (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

Abstract

Fragility of regression analysis to arbitrary assumptions and decisions about choice of control variables is an important concern for applied econometricians (e.g. Leamer (1983)). Sensitivity analysis in the form of model averaging represents an (agnostic) approach that formally addresses this problem of model uncertainty. This paper presents an overview of model averaging methods with emphasis on recent developments in the combination of model averaging with IV and panel data settings.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cemfi.es/ftp/wp/1008.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEMFI in its series Working Papers with number wp2010_1008.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2010_1008

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Casado del Alisal, 5, 28014 Madrid
Phone: 914290551
Fax: 914291056
Email:
Web page: http://www.cemfi.es/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Model averaging; model uncertainty.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Frank Kleibergen & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Bayesian and Classical Approaches to Instrumental Variable Regression," Working Papers UWEC-2002-21-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  3. Gary Koop & Eduardo Ley & Jacek Osiewalski & Mark F.J. Steel, 1995. "Bayesian Analysis of Long Memory and Persistence using ARFIMA Models," Econometrics 9505001, EconWPA, revised 11 Jul 1995.
  4. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2007. "On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4238, The World Bank.
  5. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 1999. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 9903003, EconWPA, revised 06 Oct 2001.
  6. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Javier Andrés & Óscar Arce & Carlos Thomas, 2013. "Banking Competition, Collateral Constraints, and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 87-125, December.
  8. McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian R & Volker, Paul A, 1985. "What Will Take the Con out of Econometrics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 293-307, June.
  9. Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011. "Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
  10. Pesaran, M.H. & Schleicher, C. & Zaffaroni, P., 2008. "Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0808, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2010. "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics," Working Paper Series of the German Council for Social and Economic Data 142, German Council for Social and Economic Data (RatSWD).
  13. Wagner, Martin & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2009. "Growth Regressions, Principal Components and Frequentist Model Averaging," Economics Series 236, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  14. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
  15. Carmen Fernandez & E Ley & Mark F J Steel, 2004. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian models averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  16. Harold Edgerton & Laverne Kolbe, 1936. "The method of minimum variation for the combination of criteria," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 183-187, September.
  17. William Brock & Steven Durlauf & Kenneth West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  18. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2006. "Is God in the Details? A Reexamination of the Role of Religion in Economic Growth," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0613, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  19. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher, 2009. "The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions," CESifo Working Paper Series 2519, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Claeskens,Gerda & Hjort,Nils Lid, 2008. "Model Selection and Model Averaging," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521852258, April.
  21. Li, Mingliang & Tobias, Justin, 2004. "Returns to Schooling and Bayesian Model Averaging: A Union of Two Literatures," Staff General Research Papers 12011, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  22. Theo S. Eicher & Alex Lenkoski & Adrian Raftery, 2009. "Bayesian Model Averaging and Endogeneity Under Model Uncertainty: An Application to Development Determinants," Working Papers UWEC-2009-19-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  23. K. J. Martijn Cremers, 2002. "Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Model Selection Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1223-1249.
  24. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tomas Slacik, . "On the determinants of currency crises: The role of model uncertainty," Working Papers 2008-03, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  25. John Galbraith & Douglas James Hodgson, 2009. "Dimension Reduction and Model Averaging for Estimation of Artists’ Age-Valuation Profiles," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-41, CIRANO.
  26. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  27. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2010. "Determinants of economic growth: A Bayesian panel data approach," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1031, Banco de Espa�a.
  28. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2006. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4063, The World Bank.
  29. Leamer, Edward E & Leonard, Herman B, 1983. "Reporting the Fragility of Regression Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 306-17, May.
  30. Theo Eicher & Christian Henn & Chris Papageorgiou, 2010. "Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects," Working Papers UWEC-2007-18-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  31. Guido Kuersteiner & Ryo Okui, 2010. "Constructing Optimal Instruments by First-Stage Prediction Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 697-718, 03.
  32. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  33. Gernot Doppelhofer & Melvyn Weeks, 2007. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," CESifo Working Paper Series 1978, CESifo Group Munich.
  34. Hansen, Bruce E. & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2012. "Jackknife model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 38-46.
  35. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1, January.
  36. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros KOURTELLOS & Chih Ming Tan, 2007. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0703, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  37. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
  38. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
  39. Garratt A. & Lee K. & Pesaran M.H. & Shin Y., 2003. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomic Modeling: An Application to the U.K. Economy," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 829-838, January.
  40. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Bayesian Modelling of Catch in a Northwest Atlantic Fishery," Econometrics 0110003, EconWPA, revised 18 Nov 2001.
  41. Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Least-squares forecast averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 342-350, October.
  42. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Steven Durlauf & Jeffrey Fagan & Daniel Nagin, 2007. "Model uncertainty and the deterrent effect of capital punishment," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU07-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  43. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, 07.
  44. Galo Nuño & Pedro Tedde & Alessio Moro, 2011. "Money dynamics with multiple banks of issue: evidence from Spain 1856-1874," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1119, Banco de Espa�a.
  45. Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Alin Mirestean, 2009. "Growth Determinants Revisited," IMF Working Papers 09/268, International Monetary Fund.
  46. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, 07.
  47. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2010. "Panel Growth Regressions With General Predetermined Variables: Likelihood-Based Estimation And Bayesian Averaging," Working Papers wp2010_1006, CEMFI.
  48. Morales, Knashawn H. & Ibrahim, Joseph G. & Chen, Chien-Jen & Ryan, Louise M., 2006. "Bayesian Model Averaging With Applications to Benchmark Dose Estimation for Arsenic in Drinking Water," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 9-17, March.
  49. Alin Mirestean & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Huigang Chen, 2009. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods," IMF Working Papers 09/74, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Lubos Komarek & Michal Skorepa, 2013. "Sources of Asymmetric Shocks: The Exchange Rate or Other Culprits?," Working Papers 2013/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Leading indicators of crisis incidence: evidence from developed countries," Working Paper Series 1486, European Central Bank.
  3. Liu, Chu-An, 2013. "Distribution Theory of the Least Squares Averaging Estimator," MPRA Paper 54201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2012. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1038, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2011. "Endogenous fiscal consolidations," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1102, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(16), pages 1-69.
  7. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2011. "Dynamic panels with predetermined regressors: likelihood-based estimation and Bayesian averaging with an application to cross-country growth," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1109, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Michael Danquah & Enrique Moral-Benito & Bazoumana Ouattara, 2011. "TFP growth and its determinants: nonparametrics and model averaging," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1104, Banco de Espa�a.
  9. Martin Feldkircher & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Exchange Market Pressures during the Financial Crisis: A Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence," Working Papers 332, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  10. Christian Beer & Walter Waschiczek, 2012. "Analyzing Corporate Loan Growth in Austria Using Bank Lending Survey Data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 61–80.
  11. Blazejowski, Marcin & Kwiatkowski, Jacek, 2013. "Bayesian Model Averaging and Jointness Measures for gretl," MPRA Paper 44322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Banking, debt and currency crises: early warning indicators for developed countries," Working Paper Series 1485, European Central Bank.
  13. Shekhar Aiyar & Romain A Duval & Damien Puy & Yiqun Wu & Longmei Zhang, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap," IMF Working Papers 13/71, International Monetary Fund.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2010_1008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Araceli Requerey).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.