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Jointness of Growth Determinants

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Author Info
Gernot Doppelhofer ()
Melvyn Weeks ()

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Abstract

This paper introduces a new measure of dependence or jointness among explanatory variables. Jointness is based on the joint posterior distribution of variables over the model space, thereby taking model uncertainty into account. By looking beyond marginal measures of variable importance, jointness reveals generally unknown forms of dependence. Positive jointness implies that regressors are complements, representing distinct, but mutually reinforcing effects. Negative jointness implies that explanatory variables are substitutes and capture similar underlying effects. In a cross-country dataset we show that jointness among 67 determinants of growth is important, affecting inference and informing economic policy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1978.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1978

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Related research
Keywords: model uncertainty; dependence among regressors; jointness; determinants of economic growth;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
O20 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
O50 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. M. Weeks & S. Godsill & M. Stone, 2004. "Assessing the Impact of Private Sector Balance Sheets Effects on Financial Crises: a comparison of Bayesian and information-theoretic measures of model uncertainty," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 162, Econometric Society.
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  5. Teodosio Perez-Amaral & Giampiero M. Gallo & Halbert White, 2003. "A Flexible Tool for Model Building: the Relevant Transformation of the Inputs Network Approach (RETINA)," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 821-838, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Leamer, Edward E, 1973. "Multicollinearity: A Bayesian Interpretation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(3), pages 371-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Doppelhofer, G. & Weeks, M., 2005. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  14. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 235-322. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Granger, Clive W. J. & King, Maxwell L. & White, Halbert, 1995. "Comments on testing economic theories and the use of model selection criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 173-187, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. repec:att:wimass:1920315 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Constructive data mining: modeling consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 663, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  18. Geweke, J, 1993. "Bayesian Treatment of the Independent Student- t Linear Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S19-40, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2008. "On the Effect of Prior Assumptions in Bayesian Model Averaging with Applications to Growth Regression," MPRA Paper 6772, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tomas Slacik, . "On the determinants of currency crises: The role of model uncertainty," Working Papers 2008-03, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2006. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4063, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gernot Doppelhofer & Melvyn Weeks, 2007. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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