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Assessing the Impact of Private Sector Balance Sheets Effects on Financial Crises: a comparison of Bayesian and information-theoretic measures of model uncertainty

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Author Info

  • M. Weeks
  • S. Godsill
  • M. Stone

Abstract

This paper examines the intensity of financial crises during the 1990s with a view to informing crisis prevention and mitigation policies. We compare the performance of a full Bayesian and an information-theoretic approach in addressing the econometric problems posed by the lack of a unifying theoretical model, a large number of crisis indicators, and a number of additional data shortfalls. The results indicate that the probability and intensity of financial crises are heightened by corporate illiquidity and leverage, a lack of nonbank sources of financing, excessive domestic relative to foreign currency liquidity and a cutoff of capital inflows. The implications are that policy measures aimed at improving the operation and monitoring of the corporate and nonbank financial sectors could reduce crisis vulnerability

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 162.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:162

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Related research

Keywords: Model Uncertainty; Financial Crises; Bayesian Inference; AIC; Kullback Leibler; Model Averaging;

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Cited by:
  1. Pesaran, M Hashem & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2005. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi-Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 5279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Doppelhofer, G. & Weeks, M., 2005. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schleicher, Christoph & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2009. "Model averaging in risk management with an application to futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 280-305, March.
  4. Gernot Doppelhofer & Xavier Sala I Martin & Melvyn Weeks, 2005. "Jointness of Determinants of Economics Growth," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 54, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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