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Model averaging in risk management with an application to futures markets

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  • Pesaran, M. Hashem
  • Schleicher, Christoph
  • Zaffaroni, Paolo

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for individual as well as 'average' models. The asymptotic as well as the exact finite-sample distribution of the test statistic, dealing with the possibility of parameter uncertainty, are established. The model averaging idea and the VaR diagnostic tests are illustrated by an application to portfolios of daily returns on six currencies, four equity indices, four ten year government bonds and four commodities over the period 1991-2007. The empirical evidence supports the use of 'thick' model averaging strategies over single models or Bayesian type model averaging procedures.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 16 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 280-305

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:280-305

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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Keywords: Model averaging Value-at-Risk Decision based evaluations;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Assenmacher-Wesche, K., 2007. "Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX* model for Switzerland: an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0746, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarocinski, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: Will data tell?," Economics Working Papers 1052, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2009.
  3. Vanina Forget, 2012. "Doing well and doing good: a multi-dimensional puzzle," Working Papers hal-00672037, HAL.
  4. Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Model averaging by jackknife criterion in models with dependent data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 82-94.
  5. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Optimizing Value-At-Risk And Daily Capital Charges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 831-849, December.
  6. Pesaran, Bahram & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2010. "Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1398-1416, November.
  7. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2010. "Model Averaging In Economics," Working Papers wp2010_1008, CEMFI.
  8. Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Sequential Estimation Of Shape Parameters In Multivariate Dynamic Models," Working Papers wp2012_1201, CEMFI.
  9. González-Rivera, Gloria & Yoldas, Emre, 2012. "Autocontour-based evaluation of multivariate predictive densities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 328-342.
  10. Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.

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