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Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets

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  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Christoph Schleicher
  • Paolo Zaffaroni

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for individual as well as ‘average’ models. The asymptotic as well as the exact finite-sample distribution of the test statistic, dealing with the possibility of parameter uncertainty, are established. The model averaging idea and the VaR diagnostic tests are illustrated by an application to portfolios of daily returns on six currencies, four equity indices, four ten year government bonds and four commodities over the period 1991-2007. The empirical evidence supports the use of ‘thick’ model averaging strategies over single models or Bayesian type model averaging procedures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2231.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2231

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Keywords: model averaging; Value-at-Risk; decision based evaluations;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2007. "Assessing Forecast Uncertainties in a VECX Model for Switzerland: An Exercise in Forecast Combination across Models and Observation Windows," IZA Discussion Papers 3071, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Ciccone, Antonio & Jarociński, Marek, 2008. "Determinants of economic growth: will data tell?," Working Paper Series 0852, European Central Bank.
  3. Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.
  4. Bahram Pesaran & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2010. "Conditional Volatility and Correlations of Weekly Returns and the VaR Analysis of 2008 Stock Market Crash," CESifo Working Paper Series 3023, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0910, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  7. González-Rivera, Gloria & Yoldas, Emre, 2012. "Autocontour-based evaluation of multivariate predictive densities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 328-342.
  8. Vanina Forget, 2012. "Doing well and doing good: a multi-dimensional puzzle," Working Papers hal-00672037, HAL.
  9. Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Sequential Estimation Of Shape Parameters In Multivariate Dynamic Models," Working Papers wp2012_1201, CEMFI.
  10. Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Model averaging by jackknife criterion in models with dependent data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 82-94.

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