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The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions

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Author Info
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma ()
Gernot Doppelhofer ()
Martin Feldkircher ()

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Abstract

We use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to evaluate the robustness of determinants of economic growth in a new dataset of 255 European regions in the 1995-2005 period. We use three different specifications based on (1) the cross-section of regions, (2) the cross-section of regions with country fixed effects and (3) the cross-section of regions with a spatial autoregressive (SAR) structure. We investigate the existence of parameter heterogeneity by allowing for interactions of potential explanatory variables with geographical dummies as extra regressors. We find remarkable differences between the determinants of economic growth implied by differences between regions and those within regions of a given country. In the cross-section of regions, we find evidence for conditional convergence with speed around two percent. The convergence process between countries is dominated by the catching up process of regions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), whereas convergence within countries is mostly a characteristic of regions in old EU member states. We also find robust evidence of positive growth of capital cities, a highly educated workforce and a negative effect of population density.

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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck in its series Working Papers with number 2008-26.

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Length: 42
Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2008-26

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Related research
Keywords: Model uncertainty; spatial autoregressive model; ddterminants of economic growth; European regions.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
R11 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Analysis of Growth, Development, and Changes
O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Luisa Corrado & Ron Martin & Melvyn Weeks, 2005. "Identifying and Interpreting Regional Convergence Clusters across Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C133-C160, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Fabio Canova, 2004. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-77, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Olivier Parent & James P. Lesage, 2007. "Bayesian Model Averaging for Spatial Econometric Models ," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2007-02, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682. [Downloadable!]
  8. Eklund, Jana & Karlsson, Sune, 2007. "Computational Efficiency in Bayesian Model and Variable Selection," Working Papers 2007:4, Örebro University, Swedish Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2009. "Spatial Filtering, Model Uncertainty and the Speed of Income Convergence in Europe," Working Papers 2009-17, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
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