Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

On the determinants of currency crises: The role of model uncertainty

Contents:

Author Info

  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús
  • Slacik, Tomas

Abstract

We tackle explicitly the issue of model uncertainty in the framework of binary variable models of currency crises. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, we assess the robustness of the explanatory variables proposed in the recent literature for both static and dynamic models. Our results indicate that the variables belonging to the set of macroeconomic fundamentals proposed by the literature are very fragile determinants of the occurrence of currency crises. The results improve if the crisis index identifies a crisis period (defined as the period up to a year before a crisis) instead of a crisis occurrence. In this setting, the extent of real exchange rate misalignment and financial market indicators appear as robust determinants of crisis periods.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6X4M-4VJBTK3-2/2/35629def520369ae0ce5e2f752209e17
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 621-632

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:4:p:621-632

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

Related research

Keywords: Currency crisis Bayesian model averaging;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, EconWPA.
  2. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Doppelhofer, G. & Weeks, M., 2005. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  7. Paul Krugman, 1996. "Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 345-407 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 0571, European Central Bank.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 235-322.
  11. Bussière, Matthieu, 2007. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the “early” warning signals?," Working Paper Series 0713, European Central Bank.
  12. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tomáš Slacík, 2007. "Predicting Currency Crises Using the Term Structure of Relative Interest Rates: Case Studies of the Czech Republic and Russia," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 135-149.
  13. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
  14. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  15. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer, 2006. "Nonlinearities in Cross-Country Growth Regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) Approach," Vienna Economics Papers 0608, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Željka Asanović, 2013. "Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises in Montenegro: Combination of Signal Approach and Logit Model," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 405-419, November.
  2. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types, and Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 9329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Banking, debt and currency crises: early warning indicators for developed countries," Working Paper Series 1485, European Central Bank.
  5. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tomáš Slacík, 2008. "Determinants of Currency Crises: A Conflict of Generations?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 126-141.
  6. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Leading indicators of crisis incidence: Evidence from developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-19.
  7. Vanina Forget, 2012. "Doing well and doing good: a multi-dimensional puzzle," Working Papers hal-00672037, HAL.
  8. Tomás Slacík, 2008. "(How) Will the Euro Affect Inflation in the Czech Republic? A contribution to the current debate," FIW Working Paper series 018, FIW.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:4:p:621-632. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.