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Determinants of Currency Crises: A Conflict of Generations?

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    () (University of Innsbruck)

  • Tomáš Slacík

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank,)

Abstract

Crespo Cuaresma and Slacík (2007) show that macroeconomic cík fundamentals are rather fragile determinants of currency crises under model uncertainty. The objective of the present follow-up study is to search for empirical support for the first- and second-generation models of currency crises in emerging economies using a larger dataset that includes crisis episodes of the 1980s and 1990s, while explicitly taking into account model uncertainty in a Bayesian manner. In line with the propositions made in the theoretical literature, our results suggest that crisis episodes in the 1980s were driven predominantly by adverse developments of macroeconomic fundamentals, while the results for crises in the 1990s might well be interpreted as empirical support for the second-generation type of crises. In addition, our estimation results stand in contradiction to the popular bipolar view and suggest that de facto intermediate exchange rate arrangements considerably reduce the risk of a speculative currency attack.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Focus on European Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 126-141

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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2008:i:1:b:5

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  1. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  2. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
  6. Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Fratzscher, Marcel & Matthieu Bussiere, 2003. "Towards A New Early Warning System of Financial Crises," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 81, Royal Economic Society.
  8. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June.
  9. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tomáš Slačík, 2007. "On the Determinants of Currency Crises: The Role of Model Uncertainty," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 54-68.
  10. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Tuomas A. Peltonen, 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 571, European Central Bank.
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