Evaluating Inflation Determinants with a Money Supply Rule in Four Central and Eastern European EU Member States
AbstractWe evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model averaging. We find that money provides information about price developments over a horizon of ten quarters ahead, albeit the estimates are in most cases rather imprecise. Moreover, the effect of excessive monetary growth on inflation is mixed: It is positive for Poland and Slovakia, but negative for the Czech Republic and Hungary. Nevertheless, these results suggest that money does provide information about future inflation and that a McCallum rule could potentially be used in the future as an additional indicator of the monetary policy stance once the precision of the estimation improves with more data available. JEL classification: C11, C22, E31, E52, O52
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Focus on European Economic Integration.
Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
Other versions of this item:
- Mehrotra, Aaron & Slacik, Tomas, 2009. "Evaluating inflation determinants with a money supply rule in four Central and Eastern European EU member states," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
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