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Leading indicators of crisis incidence: Evidence from developed countries

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  • Babecký, Jan
  • Havránek, Tomáš
  • Matějů, Jakub
  • Rusnák, Marek
  • Šmídková, Kateřina
  • Vašíček, Bořek

Abstract

We examine which indicators are most useful in explaining the cost of economic crises in EU and OECD countries between 1970 and 2010. To define the dependent variable we combine a measure of costs to the economy, which consists of the output and employment loss and the fiscal deficit, with a database of crisis occurrence designed specifically for this task. We take into account model uncertainty in two steps. First, for each potential leading indicator we select the relevant prediction horizon by using panel vector autoregression. Second, we identify the most useful leading indicators with Bayesian model averaging. Our results suggest that domestic housing prices, share prices, and credit growth, and some global variables, such as private credit, constitute important sources of risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 35 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 1-19

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:1-19

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Early warning indicators; Bayesian model averaging; Panel VAR; Dynamic panel; Crises;

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Cited by:
  1. Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Marcela Gronychova & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2014. "Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 12, number rb12/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, August.
  2. Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2013. "Policy in adaptive financial markets—the use of systemic risk early warning tools," Working Paper 1309, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, August.
  4. Martin Feldkircher & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Exchange Market Pressures during the Financial Crisis: A Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence," Working Papers 332, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  5. Svatopluk Kapounek & Jana Kralova, 2014. "Financial Instability and Money Velocity - Evidence from the Financial Crisis," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2014-44, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.

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