How to Exit from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes
Abstract
This paper improves upon the recently developed literature on exits from fixed exchange rate regimes in three ways: 1) It allows for two indicators for post-exit macroeconomic conditions, the change in the exchange rate and the change in the output gap; 2) it tests whether the distinction between orderly and disorderly exit is statistically justified, and concludes that it is not; 3) it deals with the sample selection problem. The results, subject to extensive sensitivity analysis, suggest that post-exits are better when de-pegging occur in good macroeconomic conditions – an unnatural move for most policy-makers – when world interest rates decline and in the presence of capital controls. Importantly, ‘good’ macroeconomic policies do not seem to help with post-exit performance.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5141.Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5141
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Related research
Keywords: exchange rate regimes; macroeconomic policy;Other versions of this item:
- Ahmet Atil Asici & Nadezhda Ivanova & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "How to exit from fixed exchange rate regimes?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 219-246.
- Ahmet Asici; Nadezhda Ivanova; Charles Wyplosz, 2005. "How to Exit From Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes?," IHEID Working Papers 03-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-08-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2005-08-13 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MON-2005-08-13 (Monetary Economics)
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Ahmet Atil Asici, 2007.
"Parametric and Non-parametric Approaches to Exits from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes,"
IHEID Working Papers
14-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Ahmet Atil Asici, 2010. "Parametric and non-parametric approaches to exits from fixed exchange rate regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 381-406.
- Ahmed Atil Asici, 2008. "Parametric and Non-Parametric Approaches to Exits from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 401, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2008.
- Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Nature of Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 12729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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