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The Art of Gracefully Exiting a Peg

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Author Info
Asici, Ahmet
Wyplosz, Charles

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Abstract

The wave of liberalization of capital movements, which swept Europe in the 1980s and the emerging market countries in the 1990s, has given rise to the two-corner strategy. According to this view only two exchange rate regimes are sustainable: hard pegs and fully flexible rates. Soft pegs in the middle are seen as doomed, open to irresistible and unpredictable speculative attacks and historical evidence shows clearly that increasing number of countries have exited the soft middle ground, mostly towards the flexible end of the spectrum. However, not all the exits from hard pegs to flexible arrangements are happy. Most countries hesitate to leave the peg when it is working properly, and consider exit option only when they are facing speculative pressure, and then it often is too late. This paper aims to analyze the factors contributing to peaceful exits, that is exiting without a significant loss in the value of the domestic currency. It seeks to find conditions that need to be satisfied to ensure an exit without significant economic costs. Historical record of exchange rate classification comes from Reinhart and Rogoff's path-breaking study on this subject, where they classified regimes on the basis of observed, de facto, currency movements rather than the announced, de jure, official rates. Some interesting results we have found may be put as follows: Cold-blooded exits enacted when the macroeconomic conditions are favorable, that is countries planning to leave a peg are advised to do it when it is least necessary and least expected. Another surprising result is that, efficient and deep financial markets do not help with exits. Countries encouraged to exit pegs before they fully liberalize their financial account and deepen their markets. The study covers the period 1975-2001. Our choice criteria provide 55 cases of exits, 27 of which is peaceful and the rest 28 cases troubled ones. We estimate non-structural probit models with monthly and annual data.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4432.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in The Economic and Social Review 3.34(2003): pp. 211-228
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4432

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Related research
Keywords: Exit; exchange rate regimes; currency crisis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," Working Papers 99-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 2006. "When Is It Optimal to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 12793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Inci Ötker & Hugh Bredenkamp & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Paul R. Masson & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1998. "Exit Strategies: Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2007. "Parametric and Non-parametric Approaches to Exits from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," HEI Working Papers 14-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Asici, Ahmet Atil & Ivanova, Nadezhda & Wyplosz, Charles, 2005. "How to Exit from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 5141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bersch, Julia & Klüh, Ulrich H., 2007. "When countries do not do what they say: Systematic discrepancies between exchange rate regime announcements and de facto policies," Discussion Papers in Economics 2072, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sébastien Wälti, 2005. "The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp96, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  5. PIERRE-RICHARD AGÉNOR, 2004. "Orderly exits from adjustable pegs and exchange rate bands," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 83-108, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gilda Fernandez & Cem Karacadag & Rupa Duttagupta, 2004. "From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving Towards Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Working Papers 04/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Frömmel, Michael, 2006. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries' Exchange Rates," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-333, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  8. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep8 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Sfia, Mohamed Daly, 2007. "Régimes de change: Le chemin vers la flexibilité," MPRA Paper 4085, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ashoka Mody & Eisuke Okada & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 05/39, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Sean Barrett, 2005. "Risk Equalisation and Competition in the Irish Health Insurance Market," Trinity Economics Papers 200058, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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