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What Hurts Most? G-3 Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility

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Carmen M. Reinhart
Vincent R. Reinhart

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Abstract

With many emerging market currencies tied to the U.S. dollar either implicitly or explicitly, movements in the exchange values of the currencies of major countries have the potential to influence the competitive position of many developing countries. According to some analysts, establishing target bands to reduce the variability of the G-3 currencies would limit those destabilizing shocks emanating from abroad. This paper examines the argument for such a target zone strictly from an emerging market perspective. Given that sterilized intervention by industrial economies tends to be ineffective and that policy makers show no appetite to return to the controls on international capital flows that helped keep exchange rates stable over the Bretton Woods era, a commitment to damping G-3 exchange rate fluctuations requires a willingness on the part of G-3 authorities to use domestic monetary policy to that end. Under a system of target zones, then, relative prices for emerging market economies may become more stable, but debt-servicing costs may become less predictable. We use a simple trade model to show that the resulting consequences for welfare are ambiguous. Our empirical work supplements the traditional literature on North-South links by examining the importance of the volatilities of G-3 exchange-rates, and U.S. interest rate and consumption on capital flows and economic growth in developing countries over the past thirty years.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8535.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8535

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kaminsky, Graciela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Emerging markets instability: do sovereign ratings affect country risk and stock returns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2678, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 285-312, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 94/9, International Monetary Fund.
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  5. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Richard H. Clarida, 1999. "G3 Exchange Rate Relationships: A Recap of the Record and a Review of Proposals for Change," NBER Working Papers 7434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Hwee Kwan CHOW & Yoonbai KIM, 2004. "The Empirical Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Interest Rates in Post-Crisis Asia," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 575, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "The Cyclical Nature of North-South FDI Flows," RES Working Papers 4317, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2002. "FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability," MPRA Paper 13872, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Vittorio Corbo, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Americas: Is Dollarization the Solution?," Documentos de Trabajo 229, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  5. DeLisle Worrell, 2003. "A Currency Union for the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 03/35, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Fernandez Arias, Eduardo & Talvi, Ernesto, 2001. "The Growth-Interest Rate Cycle in the United States and its Consequences for Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 9075, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Gerardo ESQUIVEL & Felipe LARRAIN B., 2002. "The Impact Of G-3 Exchange Rate Volatility On Developing Countries," G-24 Discussion Papers 16, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. [Downloadable!]
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2002. "Is a G-3 Target Zone on Target for Emerging Markets?," MPRA Paper 7581, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 06/37, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Vittorio Corbo, 2002. "Another Look at Exhange Rate and Monetary Regime Options for Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo 228, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ansgar Belke & Kai Geisslreither & Daniel Gros, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Southern Cone," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 232/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Reinhart, Carmen, 2006. "What is next for financial globalization: Some perspective gained from the experience of capital flows to emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 13400, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. J. Fackler & L. Filer, 2004. "Exchange Rate Targeting and Economic Stabilization," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 565, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  15. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "La naturaleza cíclica de los flujos norte-sur de inversión extranjera directa," RES Working Papers 4318, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2000. "What does a G-3 target zone mean for emerging-market economies?," MPRA Paper 14099, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  17. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Variability and Labor Market Performance in the Visegrád Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-175, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Pedro Marcelo Oviedo, 2004. "Macroeconomic risk and banking crises in emerging market countries: business fluctuations with financial crashes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
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