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Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?

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  • Kaminsky, G.L.
  • Lewis, K.K.

Abstract

A frequently cited explanation for why sterilized interventions may affect exchange rates is that these interventions signal central banks' future monetary policy intentions. This explanation presumes that central banks in fact back up interventions with subsequent changes in monetary policy. We empirically examine this hypothesis using data on market observations of U.S. intervention together with monetary policy variables, and exchange rates. We strongly reject the hypothesis that interventions convey no signal. However, we also find that in some episodes, intervention signaled changes in monetary policy in the opposite direction of the conventional signaling story. This finding can explain why in some periods exchange rates moved in the opposite direction of that suggested by intervention.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research in its series Weiss Center Working Papers with number 93-3.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 1992
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:pennif:93-3

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Keywords: policy making ; monetary theory ; money ; exchange rate;

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References

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  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Working Papers 96-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 3974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. " Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
  4. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
  5. Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1990. "Intervention and the foreign exchange risk premium: an empirical investigation of daily effects," Working Paper 9009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
  7. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey Frankel, 1991. "Does foreign exchange intervention matter? disentangling the portfolio and expectations effects for the mark," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Dominguez, K.M., 1989. "Market Responses To Coordinated Central Bank Intervention," Papers 179d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  10. Mishkin, Frederie S., 1981. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates : An efficient markets approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 29-55.
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1992. "Liquidity effects, monetary policy and the business cycle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Loopesko, Bonnie E., 1984. "Relationships among exchange rates, intervention, and interest rates: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-277, December.
  13. Lewis, Karen K., 1988. "Testing the portfolio balance model: A multi-lateral approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 109-127, February.
  14. Michael W. Klein, 1992. "The Accuracy of Reports of Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 4165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  16. Steven Strongin, 1992. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances: explaining the liquidity puzzle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  17. Cochrane, John H, 1989. "The Return of the Liquidity Effect: A Study of the Short-run Relation between Money Growth and Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 75-83, January.
  18. Kaminsky, Graciela, 1993. "Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 450-72, June.
  19. Reichenstein, William, 1987. "The Impact of Money on Short-term Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(1), pages 67-82, January.
  20. Melvin, Michael, 1983. "The Vanishing Liquidity Effect of Money on Interest: Analysis and Implications for Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(2), pages 188-202, April.
  21. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
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