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An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention

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Author Info
Paolo Vitale (D'Annunzio University and CEPR, Italy)

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Abstract

We discuss some fundamental aspects of the study of foreign exchange intervention. In particular, we analyse some unresolved issues, such as the secrecy puzzle, the relevance of the signalling and portfolio-balance effect hypotheses, the identification of the impact of foreign exchange intervention on currency values. We argue that: (i) the unresolved nature of these issues is partly due to the absence of a market microstructure perspective in most of the existing analysis of foreign exchange intervention; and (ii) that recent promising advances in this strand of research have not fully exploited the potential of such perspective. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.327
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 155-170
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:12:y:2007:i:2:p:155-170

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  1. Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Identifying the effects of U.S. intervention on the levels of exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fischer, Andreas M, 2004. "Reuters News Reports versus Official Interventions: The Inaccuracy of Reuters Reports for Swiss Interventions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4359, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Naranjo, Andy & Nimalendran, M, 2000. "Government Intervention and Adverse Selection Costs in Foreign Exchange Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 453-77.
  5. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Saacke, Peter, 2002. "Technical analysis and the effectiveness of central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 459-479, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-04, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  10. Humpage, Owen F., 2000. "The United States as an informed foreign-exchange speculator," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 287-302, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  12. Leahy, Michael P, 1995. "The profitability of US intervention in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 823-844, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Weller, Paul, 1997. "The advantage to hiding one's hand: Speculation and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 251-277, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Klein, Michael W., 1993. "The accuracy of reports of foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 644-653, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2003. "A transaction level study of the effects of central bank intervention on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 331-352, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Lecourt, Christelle, 2002. "Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-144, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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