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Reuters News Reports versus Official Interventions: A Cautionary Warning

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Abstract

Reuters reports have become an accepted tool for empirical studies analyzing informationa l asymmetries in exchange rate markets. This paper tests the accuracy of the Reuters announcements for Swiss interventions. The evidence finds that the Reuters announcements are not concentrated just after the first intervention transaction as is assumed in empirical studies. The variance of the prediction error is measured in hours and not in minutes. A further assumption that the Reuters announcement always falls after the first actual transaction is found to be violated. At a minimum, the new empirical results question the accuracy of Reuters reports for small countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee in its series Working Papers with number 03.06.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:0306

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References

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  1. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2006. "When do central bank interventions influence intra-daily and longer-term exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1051-1071, November.
  2. Peiers, Bettina, 1997. " Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1589-1614, September.
  3. Klein, Michael W., 1993. "The accuracy of reports of foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 644-653, December.
  4. Richard K. Lyons, 1995. "Foreign Exchange Volume: Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing?," NBER Working Papers 4984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1999. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Richard Payne, 2001. "A Transaction Level Study of the Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp355, Financial Markets Group.
  7. Philippe Jorion, 1996. "Risk and Turnover in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 19-40 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Michael Melvin & Bettina Peiers, 1998. "Twice a day or continuously? Observation frequency and inference on foreign exchange volatility persistence," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 44-53, March.
  9. repec:rus:hseeco:21608 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Sapp, Stephen G., 2002. "Price Leadership in the Spot Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 425-448, September.
  11. Fischer, Andreas M., 2003. "Measurement error and the profitability of interventions: a closer look at SNB transactions data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 137-142, October.
  12. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2003. "When Do Central Bank Interventions Influence Intra-Daily and Longer-Term Exchange Rate Movements?," Working Papers 506, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  2. Rasmus Fatum & Jesper Pedersen, 2007. "Real-Time Effects of Central Bank Interventions in the Euro Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 07-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Huang, Zhaodan, 2007. "The central bank and speculators in the foreign exchange market under asymmetric information: A strategic approach and evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 28-50.
  4. Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Cyril Minh Dao, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention by central banks bad news for debt markets?: A case of Reserve Bank of Australia's interventions 1986-2003," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 446-467, December.
  5. Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "Central bank authorities’ beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2006-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2007. "Informative trading or just costly noise? An analysis of Central Bank interventions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-143, May.
  7. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Critical Appraisal of Recent Developments in the Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Kim, Suk-Joong, 2007. "Intraday evidence of efficacy of 1991-2004 Yen intervention by the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 341-360, October.
  9. Paul Moser-Boehm, 2005. "Governance aspects of foreign exchange interventions," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 19-39 Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Jean-Yves Gnabo & Christelle Lecourt, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Intervention Policy: With or Without Transparency? The Case of Japan," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 113, pages 5-34.
  11. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2005-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 155-170.
  13. Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Identifying the effects of U.S. intervention on the levels of exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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