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The Accuracy of Reports of Foreign Exchange Intervention

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Michael W. Klein

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Abstract

Daily foreign exchange operations by the Federal Reserve are not revealed to the public contemporaneously or, up until recently, even years after the fact. With the recent release of daily intervention data it is now possible to gauge the accuracy of the market's perceptions of the Fed's foreign exchange intervention. In this paper we look at both qualitative and quantitative evidence on the accuracy of press reports of foreign exchange intervention by the Federal Reserve between the beginning of January 1985 and the end of December 1989. The evidence shows that the likelihood of intervention being reported given that it actually occurred was 72 percent and that the likelihood of intervention actually occurring given that it was reported was 88 percent. Interventions which were reported by the newspaper were larger on average than those which were not reported and this difference is statistically significant. Multinomial logit analysis also demonstrates that the likelihood of intervention being reported increased with the size of the intervention.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4165.

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Date of creation: Sep 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4165

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hali J. Edison, 1990. "Foreign currency operations: an annotated bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 380, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Kathryn Dominguez and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectations Effects for the Mark," Economics Working Papers 90-133, University of California at Berkeley.
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  1. Iwatsubo, Kentaro & Shimizu, Junko, 2006. "Signaling Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions and Expectation Heterogeneity among Traders," CEI Working Paper Series 2005-18, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stefan Reitz, 2005. "Central Bank Intervention and Heterogeneous Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence from the Daily DEM/US-Dollar Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 33-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lukas Menkhoff, 2008. "High-Frequency Analysis of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What do we learn?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. William P. Osterberg & Rebecca Wetmore Humes, 1995. "More on the differences between reported and actual U.S. central bank foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper 9501, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies: Results of a Survey," IMF Working Papers 03/95, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andreas Fischer, 2003. "Reuters News Reports versus Official Interventions: A Cautionary Warning," Working Papers 03.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
  7. Blake LeBaron, 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 5505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Juann H. Hung, 1995. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Research Paper 9515, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  9. Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "Central bank authorities’ beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2006-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 155-170. [Downloadable!]
  12. Christopher Neely & Paul Weller, 2000. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Working Papers 1997-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  13. William P. Osterberg, 1995. "Can foreign exchange intervention signal monetary policy changes?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May 1. [Downloadable!]
  14. Richard T. Baillie & Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1999. "Intervention as information: a survey," Working Paper 9918, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  15. William P. Osterberg & Rebecca Wetmore Humes, 1993. "The inaccuracy of newspaper reports of U.S. foreign exchange intervention," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 25-33. [Downloadable!]
  16. Michael Frenkel & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2002. "The Accuracy of Press Reports Regarding the Foreign Exchange Interventions of the Bank of Japan," Kiel Working Papers 1108, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  17. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Critical Appraisal of Recent Developments in the Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Stefan Reitz & M.P Taylor, 2006. "The Coordination Channel of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 16, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Working Papers 96-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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