IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/1827.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange rates in target zones: Evidence from the Danish Krone

Author

Listed:
  • Reitz, Stefan
  • Taylor, Mark P.

Abstract

Although the ERM II rules allow the Danish krone to fluctuate against the euro within an official target zone of 4.5%, most of the time the exchange rate has remained in a narrow range around its unconditional mean. Estimating a Smooth Transition Autoregression Target Zone (STARTZ) model confirms that the exchange rate exhibits target zone dynamics consistent with a band of approximately 0.75 percent around its unconditional mean. We conclude that the Danmark Nationalbank intervention policy of intra-marginal operations successfully managed an informal target zone in the foreign exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2013. "Exchange rates in target zones: Evidence from the Danish Krone," Kiel Working Papers 1827, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1827
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/69522/1/736089721.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melvin, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "The crisis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1317-1330, December.
    2. de Jong, F, 1994. "A Univariate Analysis of EMS Exchange Rates Using a Target Zone Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 31-45, Jan.-Marc.
    3. Fatum, Rasmus & Pedersen, Jesper, 2009. "Real-time effects of central bank intervention in the euro market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 11-20, June.
    4. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September.
    5. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
    6. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    7. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Balázs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones: A Bumpy Road towards a Honeymoon - Some Evidence from the ERM, ERM2 and Selected New EU Member States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1511, CESifo.
    8. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845.
    9. Chung, Chae-Shick & Tauchen, George, 2001. "Testing Target-Zone Models Using Efficient Method of Moments: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 276-277, July.
    10. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    11. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 579-609.
    12. Robert P. Flood & Donald J. Mathieson & Andrew K. Rose, 1990. "Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones," International Finance Discussion Papers 388, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Iannizzotto, Matteo & Taylor, Mark P, 1999. "The Target Zone Model, Non-linearity and Mean Reversion: Is the Honeymoon Really Over?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 96-110, March.
    14. Taylor, Mark P. & Iannizzotto, Matteo, 2001. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: a cautionary note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 117-129, April.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
    16. Klein, Michael W. & Lewis, Karen K., 1993. "Learning about intervention target zones," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 275-295, November.
    17. Bernd Kempa & Michael Nelles, 1999. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 173-210, April.
    18. Chung, Chae-Shick & Tauchen, George, 2001. "Testing Target-Zone Models Using Efficient Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 255-269, July.
    19. Tristani, Oreste, 1994. " Variable Probability of Realignment in a Target Zone," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 1-14.
    20. BESSEC Marie, 2010. "The Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dynamics in the EMS: a Time-Varying Threshold Test," EcoMod2003 330700015, EcoMod.
    21. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    22. Garber, Peter M. & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1995. "The operation and collapse of fixed exchange rate regimes," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 36, pages 1865-1911, Elsevier.
    23. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sercan Eraslan, 2019. "Asymmetric arbitrage trading on offshore and onshore renminbi markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1653-1675, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reitz Stefan & Taylor Mark P., 2013. "The Danish krone-euro exchange rate and Danmark Nationalbank intervention operations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 239-249, May.
    2. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2004. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 46-69.
    3. Miller, J. Isaac, 2011. "Testing the bounds: Empirical behavior of target zone fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1782-1792, July.
    4. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Balázs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones: A Bumpy Road towards a Honeymoon - Some Evidence from the ERM, ERM2 and Selected New EU Member States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1511, CESifo.
    5. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
    6. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2007. "The Optimal Degree of Exchange Rate Flexibility: a Target Zone Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 803-822, September.
    7. Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2009. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone--A heterogeneous expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 329-344, February.
    8. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 579-609.
    9. Peter P. Carr & Zura Kakushadze, 2017. "FX options in target zones," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1477-1486, October.
    10. Yu‐Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Richhild Moessner, 2018. "Informal one‐sided target zone model and the Swiss franc," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 1130-1153, November.
    11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2004:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Lera, Sandro Claudio & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "Quantitative modelling of the EUR/CHF exchange rate during the target zone regime of September 2011 to January 2015," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 28-47.
    13. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
    14. Taylor, Mark P. & Iannizzotto, Matteo, 2001. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: a cautionary note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 117-129, April.
    15. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Distribution and Volatility under the Portuguese Target Zone," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(3), pages 261-282, September.
    16. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126, Decembrie.
    17. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman, 2008. "Volatility of exchange rates in selected new EU members: Evidence from daily data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 103-118, March.
    19. Galindo, Arturo J., 2000. "Estimating credibility in Colombia's exchange-rate target zone," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 473-484, December.
    20. Tian, Lei & Chen, Langnan, 2013. "A reinvestigation of the new RMB exchange rate regime," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 16-25.
    21. Lai, Ching-chong & Fang, Chung-rou, 2012. "Is the honeymoon effect valid in the presence of both exchange rate and output expectations? A graphical analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 140-146.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Target zone; STARTZ model; Intervention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1827. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.