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Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank

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Author Info
Linda S. Goldberg
Michael W. Klein

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Abstract

The perceptions of a central bank's inflation aversion may reflect institutional structure or, more dynamically, the history of its policy decisions. In this paper, we present a novel empirical framework that uses high frequency data to test for persistent variation in market perceptions of central bank inflation aversion. The first years of the European Central Bank (ECB) provide a natural experiment for this model. Tests of the effect of news announcements on the slope of yield curves in the euro-area, and on the euro/dollar exchange rate, suggest that the market's perception of the policy stance of the ECB during its first six years of operation significantly evolved, with a belief in its inflation aversion increasing in the wake of its monetary tightening. In contrast, tests based on the response of the slope of the United States yield curve to news offer no comparable evidence of any change in market perceptions of the inflation aversion of the Federal Reserve.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11792.

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Date of creation: Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11792

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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  1. P. Siklos, M. Bohl, 2006. "Policy Words and Policy Deeds: The ECB and the Euro," Working Papers eg0050, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Macedo, Jorge Braga de & Pereira, Luis Brites, 2006. "The Credibility of Cabo Verde’s Currency Peg," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp494, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Meredith J. Beechey & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "US shocks and global exchange rate configurations," Working Paper Series 835, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Carsten Hefeker, 2006. "The monetary policy consequences of enlargement," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(4), pages 29-34, December. [Downloadable!]
  8. Carsten Hefeker, 2006. "EMU Enlargement, Policy Uncertainty and Economic Reforms," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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