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What moves sovereign bond markets? The effects of economic news on U.S. and German yields

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Author Info
Linda Goldberg
Deborah Leonard

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Abstract

Economic announcements are an important source of information, containing news that spills over internationally across markets, affecting yields. An analysis of the U.S. and German sovereign bond markets finds that the largest moves in yields are associated with U.S. announcements on labor market conditions, real GDP growth, and consumer sentiment.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2003:i:sep:n:v.9no.9

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Keywords: Bond market ; Bond market - Germany ; International finance;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Research Paper 9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Michael J. Fleming, 1997. "The round-the-clock market for U.S. Treasury securities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-32. [Downloadable!]
  3. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael J. Fleming & Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Heat waves, meteor showers, and trading volume: an analysis of volatility spillovers in the U.S. Treasury market," Staff Reports 82, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 25-36. [Downloadable!]
  7. Donald L. Kohn & Brian P. Sack, 2003. "Central bank talk: does it matter and why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 200, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mardi Dungey & Charles Goodhart & Demosthenes Tambakis, 2005. "The Us Treasury Market In August 1998: Untangling The Effects Og Hong Kong And Russia With High Frequency Data," CAMA Working Papers 2005-25, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Beechey, Meredith J & Johannsen, Benjamin K & Levin, Andrew, 2007. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area than in the United States?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission," NBER Working Papers 11166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Mardi Dungey & Michael McKenzie & Vanessa Smith, 2007. "Empirical Evidence On Jumps In The Term Structure Of The Us Treasury Market," CAMA Working Papers 2007-25, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Swanson, Eric T, 2007. "Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 6456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Magnus Andersson & Lars Jul Hansen & Szabolcs Sebestyén, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 631, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lavan Mahadeva, . "A model of market surprises," Bank of England working papers 327, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marie Brière & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Yield curve reaction to macroeconomic news in Europe : disentangling the US influence," Working Papers CEB 07-038.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Equal size, equal role? interest rate interdependence between the euro area and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 800, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Tuysuz, Sukriye & Kuhry, Yves, 2007. "Interactions between interest rates and the transmission of monetary and economic news: the cases of US and UK," MPRA Paper 5255, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2007. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp194, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Lucía Cuadro Sáez & Marcel Fratzscher & Christian Thimann, 2007. "The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets," Banco de España Working Papers 0727, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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