We investigate, theoretically and empirically, the relationship between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates. In particular, we show in a dynamic macroeconomic model that if monetary policy reveals information about economic developments, interest rates of all maturities move in the same direction in response to a policy innovation. If, on the other hand, monetary policy reveals information about the central bank's policy preferences, short and long interest rates move in opposite directions. In the empirical section, we provide direct measures of endogenous and exogenous monetary policy innovations in the U.S. by analyzing the reaction of financial market participants to Federal Reserve policy moves. The empirical findings support the theoretical predictions.
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Length: 47 pages Date of creation: 28 May 1998 Date of revision:
08 Mar 1999 Publication status: Published in American Economic Review, 2001, pages 1594-1607. Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0242
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999.
"Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting,"
NBER Chapters,
in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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