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Learning About Intervention Target Zones

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Author Info
Michael W. Klein
Karen K. Lewis

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Abstract

This paper provides a framework for evaluating how market participants' beliefs about foreign exchange target zones change as they learn about central bank intervention policy. In order to examine this behavior, we first generalize the standard target zone model to allow for intra-marginal intervention. Intra-marginal intervention implies that the position of market participants' beliefs about the target zone can be determined from their beliefs about the likelihood of intervention. As an application of this model, we estimate a probability of intervention model using daily exchange rates and market observations of central bank interventions following the Louvre Accord. Interestingly, even over this relatively stable Louvre Accord period, we find that the market's views of intervention target zones would have varied quite a bit over time.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3674.

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Date of creation: Apr 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3674

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  1. Klein, Michael W., 1992. "Big effects of small interventions: The informational role of intervention in exchange rate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 915-924, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 2001. "Measuring Convergence Speed of Asset Prices toward a Pre-announced Target," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 591-601, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Nelson Mark & Young-Kyu Moh, 2003. "Official Interventions and Occasional Violations of Uncovered Interest Party in the Dollar-DM Market," NBER Working Papers 9948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Richard T. Baillie & Owen F. Humpage, 1992. "Post-Louvre intervention: did target zones stabilize the dollar?," Working Paper 9203, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert Amano & Richard Black & Marcel Kasumovich, 1997. "A Band-Aid Solution to Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 97-11, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Miklós Koren, 2000. "Implicit Band within the Announced Exchange Rate Band," Rajk László Szakkollégium Working Papers 5, Rajk László College. [Downloadable!]
  6. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp105, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "The case for foreign exchange intervention: the government as an active reserve manager," Working Papers 2004-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Frieden Jeffry A., 2008. "Global Governance of Global Monetary Relations: Rationale and Feasibility," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Richard T. Baillie & William P. Osterberg, 1991. "The risk premium in forward foreign exchange markets and G-3 central bank intervention: evidence of daily effects, 1985-1990," Working Paper 9109, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kathryn M. Dominguez & Peter B. Kenen, 1993. "Intramarginal Intervention in the EMS and the Target-Zone Model of Exchange-Rate Behavior," NBER Working Papers 3670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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