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Soft exchange rate bands and speculative attacks: theory, and evidence from the ERM since August 1993

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  • Bartolini, Leonardo
  • Prati, Alessandro

Abstract

We present a model of a "soft" exchange rate target zone and interpret it as a stylized description of the post-August 1993 ERM. Our central bank targets a moving average of the current and past exchange rates, rather than the exchange rate's current level, thus allowing the rate to move within wide margins in the short run, but within narrow margins in the long run. For realistic parameters, soft target zones are significantly less vulnerable to speculative attacks than "hard" target zones. These predictions are consistent with the ERM's experience and the abatement of speculative pressure in European markets since the bands' widening in 1993.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 49 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
Pages: 1-29

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:49:y:1999:i:1:p:1-29

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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References

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  1. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," NBER Working Papers 3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dumas, Bernard J & Svensson, Lars E O, 1992. "How Long Do Unilateral Target Zones Last?," CEPR Discussion Papers 645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
  4. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Labhard, Vincent & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "The New EMS: Narrow Bands inside Deep Bands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 143-46, May.
  6. Gordon M. Bodnar & Leonardo Bartolini, 1992. "Target Zones and Forward Rates in a Model with Repeated Realignments," IMF Working Papers 92/22, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Klein, Michael W. & Lewis, Karen K., 1993. "Learning about intervention target zones," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 275-295, November.
  8. C. Gilles & S.F. Leroy, 1990. "Econometric Aspects of the Variance-Bound Tests: A Survey," Carleton Economic Papers 90-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 1991.
  9. Delgado, Francisco & Dumas, Bernard, 1993. "Monetary contracting between central banks and the design of sustainable exchange-rate zones," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 201-224, May.
  10. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 1997. "Soft versus hard targets for exchange rate intervention," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 13-52, 04.
  11. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Occasional Interventions to Target Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 691-715, September.
  12. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  13. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1993. "One-Factor Interest-Rate Models and the Valuation of Interest-Rate Derivative Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 235-254, June.
  14. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  15. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
  16. Klein, Michael W., 1992. "Big effects of small interventions: The informational role of intervention in exchange rate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 915-924, May.
  17. Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2005. "ERM effects on currency spot and futures markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 145-163, December.
  2. Miller, J. Isaac, 2011. "Testing the bounds: Empirical behavior of target zone fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1782-1792, July.
  3. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 579-609.
  4. Nissanke, Machiko, 2003. "Revenue Potential of the Currency Transaction Tax for Development Finance: A Critical Appraisal," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  5. M. Frömmel & G. Garabedian & F. Schobert, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the Exchange Rate Matter?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/611, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2004:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Eleftheriou, Maria & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2006. "Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era: Is there a common rule?," Working Paper Series 0659, European Central Bank.

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